Financial forecast for November 2014

Dmitry Mayorov. Analysts of investment companies and credit institutions expect in November multidirectional dynamics of the Russian stock indices, weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro, inform social data research conducted Last news .

According To the consensus forecast, based on the expectations of analysts, indexes MICEX and RTS will not show a single speaker. MICEX will decrease for November 2, 2%, RTS will increase by 1, and 6%, respectively. The price for oil of mark Brent is expected to remain around $ 86 per barrel, and gold will rise to $ 150 per ounce above the level of $ 1300.

The Euro against the dollar, according to the examination results, will depart at 0, 5 cent to 1, 2480 dollar. The ruble against the us dollar weakens by 25 cents, and against the Euro by 38 cents.


on the eve of the November holidays there have been several developments, which have a positive impact on the domestic stock market, says Marina Lazutkin from BCS Premier.

" It's the consensus on gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine and stabilization of oil prices, which are already trying to build On the achievements of the " bottom " in the region of $ 85 per barrel Brent. We maintain our forecast for the growth of oil prices to $ 90 by the beginning of the winter period, " she says.

There is reason to believe that the MICEX Index will have the opportunity to gain a foothold above the zone 1430-1440 points, where lies a direct way to turn 1500. Positive dynamics can also help save increase in external markets, believes Lazutkin.

in the form of a negative look geopolitical risks, says Daria Zhelannova from Alpari." From the development of the situation in Ukraine and the history of punishment will be according to the dynamics of the main indices and currency, " she says.

" The EU at a meeting on October 28, did not want From a revision of the regime of sanctions against Russia. On Sunday, November 2 parliamentary elections will be held in the new Russia. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia S. Lavrov Century already said about the fact that the Russian Federation has recognized the results of the elections to the Parliament in Kiev and recognizes them in the South-East of Ukraine. The EU response came without hesitation: if It happens, will be negative consequences. With high probability the story is about the strengthening of the regime of punishment, " said Zhelannova.

on the Russian market pressure From high interest rates and save devaluation sentiments will continue to have a negative impact on the ruble assets, believes Vladimir yevstifeev, analyst at Bank Zenit.

" External support is not worth waiting, because even outside the Ukrainian position assets of most developing economies lost investment potential ", he added.

the Russian market remains one of the outsiders among emerging markets on the dynamics of corporate profits due to falling oil prices and the economic downturn, says Alexander Polovtsov of URALSIB management.

" Political risks are also extremely high in conditions of chronic save penalties and the nationalization of " Bashneft ". History shows that After falling in the first 10 months of the year stock indexes are Most often continue to fall, and in November-December. A little who wants to show loss-making tools in the annual reports, for this reason buying outsiders often observed only in January, " he says.

However, there is a moderate estimate. The MICEX index of about 1400 points found the balance between fear and greed of the players, believes Dmitry Savchenko from Nordea Bank.

" then we need significant new developments outside the market to form a new trend. As for the future of this new factor is not visible, which suggests that the level of 1400 on MICEX plus or minus a few % will continue in November. The RTS index May be continue to a greater extent reflect changes in the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar than the real dynamics of stock prices ", - he concluded.


The sharp appreciation of the ruble October 30 can initiate a bullish trend on the domestic currency, and by the end of November, she will be able to play the part of his autumn weakening, says Anton Soroko of the investment company " Finam ".

" Of course, this scenario is relevant only in the case of quotations of " black gold " will not continue to fall and stabilize at current price levels, " he says.

" However, according to the Central Bank of the Russian companies and banks before the end of 2014 will have to repay external loans to an estimated 50 billion dollars. The shortage of foreign currency in terms of difficulties With refinancing debt will continue to put pressure on the Russian Ruble, " says analyst Alliance Investment " Vitaly Kupeev.



" in terms of the weakness of the ruble will be interesting stocks exporters, 1st of all oil and gas organizations. A favorite is " Surgutneftegas ", with a large Deposit in US dollars. The Best private investment is currently a Deposit in us dollars at a reputable Bank, the yield can reach 8% per annum, " says managing assets managing company " AGANA " Sergey Murter.

" A whole galaxy of Russian companies (LUKOIL, Norilsk Nickel, NOVATEK, MMK, " M. Video ", " Severstal ", " company ", " ourselves ", PIC) before the end of 2014 will produce a solid dividend payments. According to media reports, This is due to a possible increase in tax credits on dividends From 9% to 13% by 2015 and anthophorini " initiatives of the authorities. Anyway, in the coming weeks will be an increased demand for listed securities, " says Roman Tkachuk from " Nord-capital ".

The most attractive in November will be a short position in the bi-currency basket against the ruble (the actual rate on the strengthening of the national currency of the Russian Federation until the end of the year)and long position in the shares of metallurgy and retail, said Yuri Timoschenko of the criminal code of Veles Management.


sections: Politics