Michael Egorin. International monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that real GDP growth of the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) in 2014 and 2015 there will be 5, 5% 5, 6%, respectively, reported in a statement released Tuesday, the report on the prospects of the regional economy.
in October, the IMF predicted that the economies of the countries in the region in 2014 and 2015 will grow by 6, 2% 6, 4% respectively. According to the Fund, economic activity in the area of CCA is reduced, for example, due to growing regional tensions relating to the Russian Federation, one of the main trading partners and sources of inflow of remittances and investments in these countries, but mainly as a result of weakening domestic demand in a number of CCA.
" reducing domestic demand and the secondary effects of a slowdown in the increase in the RF lead to the reduction in the pace of economic improvement in CCA presumably to 5, 5% in 2014-2015, 0, 75 percentage point lower than projected in the may Bulletin " prospects of development of regional economy " 2014 ", - the report says the IMF.
according to the comments of the authors of the report, further strengthening of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may have significant implications for the CCA region, both in the short and in the medium term. With his hand extended period of slower increase in other trading partners, the most in the European Union or China, can also have a negative impact on external demand.
according to the forecast by IMF experts in the countries of the region, related to oil exporters (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), in 2014 and 2015 economic growth will be 5, 6% 5, 7%, whereas in the importing countries (Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) - 4, 6% 4, 9%.
Presenting a report on Tuesday in Almaty, Deputy Director of the Department of Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF Juha Kahkonen also noticed that low oil prices will have a mixed impact on countries in the CCA region." If low cost for petroleum products will continue, because it will bring some benefits for the countries-importers of oil, the growth of their economies is expected to be 1 percentage point higher, while countries-oil exporters will observe a slow increase of the economy presumably at 0, 5 percentage points due to this factor, " he said.
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