The potential reduction in oil prices persists

Information group Finam.ru (included in investment holding FINAM) held an online conference "oil Prices are going "to the bottom": a new Chapter in the history of "black gold". Participants admit the possibility of a further decline in oil prices, and the price of the "bottom" of the "black gold" can be achieved in 2015-2016.

The fall in oil prices exceeded 30% with summer peaks - quotes surpassed the record of four years ago. The IEA believes that the main reasons for falling prices were weak demand, the growth of the dollar and increase supplies of unconventional oil, mainly shale in the United States. Now the focus is scheduled for November 27, 2014 meeting of the OPEC, and two days before it will be held in Vienna petroleum conference, where his word will tell and Russian oil companies. Unity in the views of participants in organized "Finam" conference on the future Outlook for the oil market yet.

The main reasons for the prolonged reduction of prices on the oil market is a combination of the global weakening of the global economy (excluding, perhaps, only the United States) and large-scale growth of oil production, says principal analyst at Nordea Bank" Denis Davydov: "In particular, increased production volumes African countries-exporters of oil, and the US due to the shale oil and is approached its energy independence. Based on current conditions, the bottom can be $60-70 per barrel Brent. <...> We believe that within the next 2-3 years the oil will cost $80-100, and after more than $100 per barrel".

Allows repetition of the scenario of the 90's, when oil prices were kept stable at a low level for a long period of time, the Director of the analytical Agency Small Letters Vitaly Kryukov. This situation, he notes, has resulted in a substantial curtailment of investment in new projects, which, in turn, resulted in a powerful bull market of oil in the zero years, when the growth of production have not kept pace with demand growth. "Some of the signs of the collapse of major investment players we see now at the current prices, " says the expert. Even if prices remain at $70-80 for the next few years, investments in new projects can further to fall. The oil market, like any market that develops in cycles, so, probably, sooner or later will have to go through a phase of low oil prices on the long period of time, in order to then come to a new bullish cycle".

Speculative pressure due to multiple predominance of "paper oil" on its physical volume can provoke a deep market of the pit, but for a long time to keep the bar extremely low prices, global exchange, players can not afford because of increasing reaction producers, says the head of the analytical Department of the national energy security Fund Alexander Pasechnik: "Speculators important to know and understand the "bottom", to enter the market, return of capital in the oil... And "bottom" outlined JP Morgan at $65 per barrel <...> given that JP Morgan is important and a significant player from the pool of speculators, $65 is about their purpose".

In a global perspective, oil prices will update the lows of 2008, predicts analyst Department of world markets analysis FINAM" Vadim Sysoev: "the Fundamental causes for the decline of oil can be different, ranging from slowing global economic growth, ending in a sharp reduction of cost of production of shale oil. You should not rule out the emergence of more energy efficient technologies in the long term".

Does not expect that OPEC will cut oil production, and may be limited to verbal interventions, chief analyst "Promsvyazbank" Ekaterina Krylova: "Our forecast for the average price of oil by the end of this year - $78 per barrel". She estimates that a price "floor" will come in 2016 - $67 per barrel in 2015 and$74 per barrel.

sections: Economics