Resuscitation of the Ukrainian economy after the Maidan will take a lot of time, and " feelings " to come to Ukraine will start no earlier than 2019, says Ukrainian political scientist Alexander Okhrimenko, says the Ukrainian print edition.
in his vision, in the coming year will continue the decline of Ukraine's GDP And will be dramatically reduced income residents. At the same time inflation will presumably reach 20%, and the level of unemployment will increase from 9, 3% to 12%.
" Only the shadow economy And the mass immigration of Ukrainians to work abroad will help to keep the unemployment rates are at such a low level, " the analyst wrote.
Okhrimenko considers it possible that will be the wave of mass bankruptcies of small And medium-sized organizations.
in his vision, 2016 Ukraine's GDP will stop their fall And will stop on the achieved performance, Although the devaluation of the hryvnia And the prices will continue. Unemployment will rise to 15%. Finally closes the vast number of chemical And engineering organizations, reported in the publication, and will Also decrease the number of small And medium-sized businesses served by these companies.
" The main rescue Ukrainians will be the shadow economy. Where there will always be honest to pay wages, but will at least pay for, in contrast from the white market, Where wage arrears will be commonplace, " said the specialist.
in 2017 GDP of Ukraine started the slow ascent in the region of 0, 5%. Okhrimenko believes that in 2017 should end the fight oligarchic clans And money from offshore will be back in the country that will help restore business.
in addition, says the expert, Ukraine will restore business relations with CIS countries And starts to increase exports to these countries. Relations with the EU will not be able to meet the export needs of Ukraine.
" The EU will only be purchased iron And corn, corn And iron. The EU market will never replace Ukraine CIS Market, because they are too different export potential, " he writes. The level of unemployment will decrease to 12%. However, inflation is still at 15%.
According to the forecast of Alexander Okhrimenko, in 2018, you can wait for enhancing Ukraine's GDP by 3%. Parallel will begin to grow and incomes, lower inflation.
in 2019 specialist predicts 5% growth of Ukraine's GDP, the growth of the cash receipt residents to domianovskogo level, as well as the revival of small And medium businesses due to the return of big business their money home.
However, most of the promises, according to the Creator, And will remain promises And slogans." Although, most likely, in 2019 will also say that we need to fight against the illegal activities of officials that need reforms that Ukraine has made the European choice that in the near future Ukraine will receive a visa-free regime And earn a free trade zone with the EU And that has the ability to be in the future Ukraine has the opportunity to be admitted to the EU And NATO ", - believes Okhrimenko.
sections: Politics |