As long as the events in Ukraine is Not irreversible, it is necessary that the West insisted on forcing Kiev to conduct economic and political reforms, " said Director of the Carnegie Moscow center Dmitri Trenin in the publication, published in the National Interest.
"The second Minsk agreement was Not a peace Treaty. It was an agreement to stop the fire, also very fragile. Its rules are hardly Possible to implement in full, except for the suspension of large-scale hostilities, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and an exchange of prisoners of war, " says the Creator.
Kiev cannot and will Not pay for the restoration of the Donbass, and it will Not conduct dialogues With the leadership of the militants, says Trenin. Economic relations are Not restored, and the contacts between people is limited. Reintegration of Donbass in the Ukraine will be acceptable for Kiev only If militia forces in fact capitulate, and their administrative structures will disappear, which will enable Ukraine to rebuild the oversight of the border linking Donetsk and Luhansk region To Russia. According to the calculations this Can be achieved by military victory of Kiev or in the case of a political collapse of the Kremlin. But at the moment neither the 1st nor the second option, according to Trenin, are Not real. The conflict is now frozen.
at the same time, all attention was focused on Kiev. The picture there is Not the most attractive, says the Creator of the article. Oligarch Igor Kolomoisky trying to seize business assets, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk fiercely criticized by political opponents and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko claims " to own a piece of power in the country ".
"You could say that the revolution of Maidan 2014 changed everything except the oligarchic political and economic system of Ukraine. Yes, Viktor Yanukovych is gone, But the rest of His departure grew stronger. With the regime of the Board of one clan over, But corrupt oligarchic regime reconstructed, " says Trenin.
according to His vision, Russia will Not seek to exacerbate the conflict in order to prepare great political deadlock Kiev and start a spring offensive. Not expressed interest in this and the United States. However, Ukrainian politicians in the current environment it is Possible to wait for the " false start ", similar to what was done in 2008 in Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, who unleashed the aggression against South Ossetia in full confidence that the US would rush to his rescue.
"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has already made it a rule to talk about the fact that Ukrainians are fighting for Western civilization. But this time miscalculation can have much more serious consequences than what happened in South Ossetia", says Trenin.
If Ukraine will start the next stage powerful instability, This may be the whirlpool, which will tighten and the West, including the United States - With unpredictable and most likely disgusting consequences, he said.
"most importantly, Ukraine today, it is necessary that the West insisted on forcing Kiev to conduct economic and political reforms. The greatest danger is Not Mariupol, and the complete collapse of the Ukraine, and this danger it is necessary to prevent ", - concludes the Creator of its publication in the National Interest.