International monetary Fund (IMF) has changed the expectations for a decrease of Russia's GDP in 2015 in the negative direction, reducing the Forecast to 3, 8% (0, 8 percentage points) and 1, 1% (0, 1 percentage points in 2016, says a report from the April report "prospects for the global economy" (World Economic Outlook).
Thus, the Fund lowered its Forecasts, which were announced in the January report, RIA " Novosti ". The beginning of the stabilization Fund in Russia expects no earlier than the 4th quarter of 2016. According to forecasts, in comparison With the fourth quarter of 2015, which assumes a Decline in GDP of 6, 4% in 2016 in the fourth quarter is expected to grow by 2%.
The IMF forecasts are among the most pessimistic. Thus the world Bank expects the fall of the Russian economy in 2015, as the IMF - 3, 8%, but in 2016 - only 0, 1%. The Ministry of economic development in the base case considers that this year GDP will fall by 3%, and From 2016 the Economy will start to grow by 2, 3% in 2017 and 2018 - 2, 5%. Moreover, statistics from the Russian Federation will have an impact on the entire region of the CIS, says the IMF. Members of the Commonwealth, if we exclude from the analysis the Russian Federation will grow by 0, 4% of GDP in 2015, at 3, 2% in 2016. With the release of the statistics look different - the Fall of 2, 6% in 2015 and grow by 0, 3% in 2016. The IMF explains the worsening Outlook sharp decrease in profits of the oil exporters. Thus remain geopolitical tensions related To the situation in Ukraine." Falling oil prices and international punishment worsened the situation of the country and undermined its credibility, " sums up the IMF. The Foundation also predicts that the rise in consumer prices according to the results of 2015 in Russia will amount to 17, 9%, 2016 - 9, 8%." Falling oil prices and international punishment worsened the situation of the country and undermined its credibility, which leads to a significant depreciation of the ruble, "- said in the report, RIA " Novosti ". The IMF is more pessimistic in its own forecasts than the world Bank, which results in 2015 expects inflation in Russia at 10%. The official Forecast of the Russian authorities on inflation for the current year is 12, 2%. At the same time, the IMF raised its Forecast for the rise in global economy in 2016, 0, 1 percentage points to 3, 8% of GDP. The forecast for 2015 is retained as in the previous January report, the Fund expects to improve 3, 5% of global GDP. In the Foundation's report notes that advanced economies such strong players as the U.S., Eurozone countries, and Thus China, compensated for the Fall in some other countries, for example, Russia or Venezuela. They are faced not only With falling oil prices, but subjective and internal challenges that put pressure on the economy. The Eurozone economy, on the contrary, due to the strong currency and falling energy costs could benefit, says the report. In the end, the Foundation has improved the Forecasts increase for 2015 the key Eurozone members Germany and France for 2015 and 2016 at 0, 3 and 0, 2 percentage points. In 2015, Germany's GDP will grow by 1, 6%, and in 2016 - by 1, 7%. Economy of France - 1, 2% this year and by 1, 5% in the upcoming. In General, the Eurozone is expected GDP growth in 2015 to 1, 5%, and in 2016 - 1, 6%. The forecast increase of the U.S. economy, worsened by 0, 5% In 2015 and at 0, 2 PCT In 2016 - up to 3, 1% for both years. Adjustment relates, and With a serious rate of the U.S. shale revolution and the volatility of energy prices, summarizes the Fund.