The announcement in July of Ukraine defaulting on its external debt obligations will be a simple statement of the fact that, in practice, it has already happened, for this reason serious consequences for the economy of This country have become, according to polled Last news professionals.
first Finance Minister of Ukraine Natalie Jaresko said that the country's Default on foreign debt obligations " possible ". She commented on the opinion of the analysts that Ukraine may Default on July 24 in connection with the necessity of payments in this period of the next coupon in $ 120 million Eurobond.
the head of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko emphasizes that Jaresko just " aware that to pull the game to say that All will be well, you Never get it, because de facto the country is already in default, now the story is only about fixing this de jure.
"The default in Ukraine in General exist. She means that in July we in truth have to repay the loans associated with the state Corporation "Ukrzaliznytsya" (railway Ministry - ed.), somewhere half a billion dollars needs to pay. Most likely, it has the ability to be Defaulted, " said the specialist.
However, he said that he sees No great danger for the economy in this scenario, because " Everything that could have fallen, has fallen ", and the investments currently, neither public nor private entities to obtain and So do Not have the opportunity." Don't think because someone Is shocking. Everyone understands that there is no money, Ukraine, paying difficult. All investors included these risks in their own forecasts. So, Not stated, because It's something radically will change, " explained Okhrimenko.
in his vision, more harm to the economy today cause of the " war of the oligarchs ", against which the Default is relegated to the background. Speaking about the reaction of international lenders, such as the IMF, he said that " what they promised, they'll do it."
"The IMF is likely just delay the deadline for issuance of the next tranche, because there definitely will be a new requirement of privatization, that is, they will replace the condition of restructuring for privatization," predicts a specialist.
such opinion was expressed by the Professor of political theory at MGIMO Kirill Koktysh, noting that " formally, the West is Not ready to accept the Default." Speaking about the consequences of such a development, the analyst said that the respect of default will result in the inability to obtain external financing, to further depreciation of the national currency, but for the residents of the Default will Not be a severe blow.
"The population of Ukraine lives, relying on their strength, but to maintain the infrastructure It would be a major blow, Not the fact that the Ukrainian government will support it," added Koktysh.
A different view is held by associate Professor of political science and sociology political process sociology faculty of Moscow state University, expert of the Russian Council on international Affairs Paul Kanevsky, who believes that a similar scenario is unlikely and unlikely to Kiev or Brussels will allow.
"I don't think is currently in default someone showed interest. This message Rather play for the audience, " he suggested Kanevsky. In his vision, the purpose of such statements of the Minister of Finance of Ukraine is an attempt to intensify the process of negotiations on debt restructuring with international lenders.
"It is an attempt injection of fear - what if the situation were to get out of observation, if the European Union will Not, and among them, to put pressure on the Russian Federation with the negotiations on the debt, It increases the probability of the cast to very unfortunate consequences. A call Not to forget that Ukraine is also a bad economic situation, Not only in Greece, because currently all of the talk about Greece's economic agenda riches of Ukraine has receded into the background in the European Union, " explained the analyst.
General state dog of Ukraine is about 70 billion dollars, of which about $ 40 billion foreign debt. The government planned to restructure 22-23 billion loans provided by private lenders, referring to this amount and the debt before the Russian Federation Eurobonds of 3 billion.. While Kiev was calculated according to the results of restructuring to reduce costs in four years, fifteen. 3 billion dollars.
However, the creditors ' Committee headed by Fund Franklin Templeton uniting holders 8, 9 billion dollars of debt, did Not want to go on rules of Ukraine, which in addition to lower interest payments insisted on writing off part of the loan. Reaching agreements with private creditors is one of the conditions for continued provision of assistance from the IMF on 17, 5 billion dollars funds and other international lenders.