Ukraine may declare the default at the end of summer - beginning of autumn, If the creditors rejected the latest offer of the authorities of the debt restructuring, said in explanation of the Last news Former 1st Deputy Prime Minister and former head of the NBU Sergey Arbuzov.
first of Ukraine in the framework of the plan of debt repayment has asked creditors to write off 40% of the principal amount of the debt and accept a fresh bond linked to future economic performance. Last week the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Natalie Jaresko said that Kiev was sent to creditors edited proposal, which includes a significant decrease in the amount of the debt, extension of repayment period and fix interest rates. On Thursday in explanations correspondents Jaresko has not ruled in July defaulting on the national debt.
"There needs to be a trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the IMF and creditors, where will be presented a new proposal for restructuring of external debts. It is, However, not much different from the old. Ukraine, pointing to a fresh, even more catastrophic predictions of the wealth of the economy, asks a significant reduction in the principal amount of the debt, extension of repayment period and interest rate. This is the last chance. If the creditors reject This proposal, then, in practice, with 100% probability, Ukraine will default. This will occur approximately at the end of summer - early autumn ", - said Arbuzov.
according to his statement, in the case of default in the country will steadily start to panic, Ukraine will face an uncontrolled devaluation of the hryvnia, which will lead to the unwinding of inflation. Thus, according to Arbuzov, Ukrainian state property abroad has the opportunity to be arrested for claims of creditors, Ukraine will be denied access to international capital markets that will plunge the country into a protracted economic and social depression.
The former head of the national Bank stressed that the government and the national Bank will have to take a number of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the economy and curb the panic." But, as was shown last year and a half, the authorities are unable to act effectively in crisis conditions. And That This means that they will not be able to adequately respond to emerging risks, which, moreover, it is easy to have the opportunity to be amplified is inevitable in such a case, political crisis, and possibly the resignation of the government, " - said Arbuzov.
in this case, according to his vision, the authorities will resort to a moratorium on the withdrawal of deposits in foreign currency and restrictions on capital movement that will hit households and businesses.