When political Analysts And commentators in the Western media talk about the probability of war between the U.S. And Russia, most often it comes to the Baltic States, writes the American portal.
According to the theory analysts VOX, the point of military clashes of the North Atlantic Commonwealth And Russia can become Estonia is a Baltic state With a population of 1 3 million people, the existence of which " the vast number of American citizens have the opportunity not to suspect ".
"Estonia, together With Latvia And Lithuania - state, also known as the Baltic countries are on the edge of Eastern Europe near Russia's borders. They also were part of the USSR. And the States are the place where the fears of Western analysts, might develop the third world war ", - stated in the publication.
the magazine drew attention to the words of Professor of international relations, Carleton University (Canada) Stephen Seidman, who believes that the epicenter of any practical potential global crises will become a small country. Political scientists Graham Allison And Dimitri Simes in the 1st of his essays for the magazine called it the Baltic States "Achilles heel" of NATO.
The choice of Estonia, on the one hand, due to the fact that presumably a quarter of residents of this state are ethnic Russian citizens. Here VOX Analysts draw a parallel With the already " hot " point - Ukraine, where a significant portion of the ethnic composition of South-Eastern regions of the state are Russians or Russian-speaking the language of the citizens of Ukraine. On the reverse side, Estonia, in contrast to Ukraine, is a member of NATO, And in Accordance with the fifth Chapter of the Charter of the organization, any attack on one member of the Commonwealth is an attack on all the members of a military unit. Because of this, the expected publication, "invasion" from Russia to provoke the U.S. And the vast number of European countries on the Declaration of war against Moscow.
review correspondents portal in the Baltic States there is now " unprecedented since the cold war military activity.
"This is a classic example of what political scientist called security dilemma: each party considers its actions as defensive, and the activity of the enemy is treated as offensive. Both parties are responsible for the alleged provocation even greater escalation, " say Analysts publications. So, you create a self-replicating system of conflict, which is likely to emerge the war, as was the case With the First world war.
Next VOX in the framework of his theory offers a kind of "playing field" - in the Baltic, where the probability of an outcome depends on the sequence of actions of the players. Analysts suggest that the starting point to open conflict have the opportunity to be the protests of the Russian ethnic minorities in the Estonian city of Narva. The 1st move is made by the Alliance And NATO has two options - diplomatic call for "calm" or to immediately enter the military contingent for fear of " Russian invasion ". Then everything depends on the actions of the capital of Russia: if Russia enters its forces in response, is not excluded either as random, And Thus deliberate collision of 2 armies. In this case, there will be a war between Russia And NATO in Estonia.
the magazine believes that if "the conflict in Narva" will be included in the frozen stage, and the conflict area will be disputed province With close ties With Russia, will become apparent inability of NATO to conform to the principles of collective defence And the unit will be dissolved. Russia, in this scenario, again will rule in Eastern Europe.
The VOX script also assumes that if it comes to a direct nuclear war, there are four scenarios, each of which involves the death of a million people And win one of 2 sides. According to the worst option, in result of the collision of Russia And NATO on the earth will come " nuclear winter ".