If Ukraine will not be able to agree on the rules of aid, the situation will be much worse than in Greece, believes economic journalist Peter Spence. The poverty of the inhabitants may increase fourfold, because this country could overwhelm the violent acts and political instability.
Ukraine was deprived not only of the Crimea, and such investors, as Shell and Chevron, who did not want from the plans on creation of shale gas. Although natural resources allow the country to be a supplier of energy, Kiev is increasingly dependent on its imports. The conflict in the East of the country has hit production, it is also necessary to add the crisis of the hryvnia, the course which from the beginning of last year fell by 60%. According to the journalist, to repay dollar Debt because of this Ukraine harder.
Debt seems to be non-redeemable and requires, in the opinion of the IMF restructuring. The Fund recommended that the bondholders to take losses now that the situation is under observation by 2020. While long-term forecasts call skepticism, as the IMF often forced them to change: currently, the Fund expects the fall of Ukraine's GDP by the end of the year by 9%, and in March predicted 5, 5%.
There is no clarity regarding the conditions of debt restructuring. Kiev authorities would like to see the creditors agreed to write off 40%, and certain of the lenders agrees to only 5%. If the reduction will be significant, says Spence, investors are unlikely to want to invest in Ukraine, the capital market may become unavailable both for the government and private organizations that will greatly affect the timing of reconstruction.
authorized Bank Merrill Lynch Boris Khramtsov believes that the lack of direct contact between the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance and creditors, the Risk of a moratorium of default and show on unproductive negotiations.
If the debt situation is not solved, then Ukraine will have worse than Greece.