Ukrainian government delegation on Wednesday will meet in San Francisco with the international Committee of creditors, which comprises five largest holders of its bonds worth 10 billion dollars headed by Franklin Templeton, for the final round of negotiations on the restructuring of the public debt of the country.
Restructuring part of the debt in the amount of 22, 7 billion, including debts to Ukrainian enterprises, stipulated in the Memorandum of understanding between the Ukrainian government and the IMF and is one of the key conditions for the provision of Kiev 17. 5 billion dollars in a four-year program of the extended payment.
Ukraine is in a difficult financial-economic situation and without the help of the IMF she is in imminent default.
Kyiv received the 1st tranche of aid from the IMF $ 5 billion in March 2015. According to the plan, Ukraine was to come to a consensus on the restructuring with creditors to release the second tranche of the IMF in the amount of 1, 7 billion. However, the dialogue has stalled, the parties have until now not have the opportunity to come to a common opinion about the restructuring terms.
in the end, the IMF decided to allocate the second tranche of aid, without waiting for the completion of the restructuring. However, delays in the negotiations with creditors on restructuring has shifted the timing of IMF programs. According to the plan the second tranche was obliged to go to Kiev until June fifteen, But was listed only at the beginning of August.
Now Kiev and the IMF, most likely, it will be necessary to make adjustments to the programme of cooperation. The parties will be difficult to meet deadlines for split of 2 tranches. 1st of them is required to be allocated to fifteen September, the second - to fifteen December. Both tranches are planned at $ 1, 7 billion. If Kiev will be able to fulfill the requirements of the IMF in terms of debt restructuring, Perhaps we can talk about consolidation of 2 tranches in one, also, apparently, will change the timing of disbursements.
The total volume of external debt of Ukraine is 68 billion dollars. The ratio of public debt to GDP according to the results of 2014 has reached a critical level - 70, 1%. According to experts, the Ukrainian foreign is an indicator of 60%.
for this reason, the IMF, With the approval of a new programme of assistance to Ukraine has exposed one of the key conditions for the allocation of payment for the achievement of Kyiv ratio of public debt to GDP ratio at the level not more than 71% by 2020, budget financing debt may not exceed 10% of GDP.
Another condition of the IMF Is reaching Kiev restructuring, in which the calculation of four years would allow Ukraine to save $ fifteen, $ 3 billion.
According to the head of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine Natalia Jaresko, who will head the Ukrainian delegation at the talks in the U.S., Kyiv will lead to the signing of the agreement with creditors that will meet all of the requirements of the IMF.
Kiev announced the start of negotiations on restructuring in March, immediately after the statement of the IMF program. However, after almost six months the parties were unable to reach a compromise solution. The main requirement of the Kiev - write-off of 40% of the amount of the loan is principally not satisfied creditors. The creditors Committee believes that all rules of the IMF can be executed without writing off the principal amount of the debt by extending the maturity of the Eurobonds and at the expense of the grace period for payment of coupons. Readiness to write off 5% of the debt Is high, which At this point of time agreed by the creditors ' Committee in the negotiation process, but Kiev new proposal is also not satisfied.
according to experts, the greatest compromise concession that Kiev can count, is to achieve consensus with creditors to write off 15-20% of public debt.
at the same time, If the agreement will not be reached, Kiev may impose a moratorium on payment on the restructured debt, that is to declare a technical default. This could happen as early as 23 September, when Ukraine will be obliged to pay foreign liabilities of approximately five hundred million dollars.