Signed agreement of Ukraine on debt restructuring less striking than it might seem at 1st glance, writes the British magazine.
The Foundation for all the conflict in Ukraine has granted Kiev $11. However, that Ukraine could be creditworthy and pay the bills, the IMF promised to allocate another $11 billion before the end of 2018.
But, writes the Economist, the IMF has several conditions: Ukraine needs to minimize the payments on the foreign debt to $15, 3 billion by 2018 and reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP to 71% by 2020.
taking into account the restructuring, Ukraine May be able to fulfill the first condition (although it all depends on holders of international bonds), But others will have problems, stresses the magazine.
The Economist recalls that by the end of the current year Ukraine's GDP could decline by 60% in dollar terms - to $70 billion. In the 1st quarter it decreased by 17% in the past year, and in the 2nd - 15%.
With the pace of GDP decline, the objectives set by the IMF, seem intractable.
Also, emphasizes The Economist, in the short term, the deal With creditors would have no impact on the welfare of ordinary Ukrainians who are currently " poorer than the end of the era of the Soviet Union ". The Ukrainian currency is very weak: the current inflation rate reaches 60%.
Long-term forecasts slightly better: even if tomorrow the war in Eastern Ukraine will stop, the country will need tens of billion of dollars to recover from it.
on Thursday, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine informed that With international creditors agreed to write off 3, $ 6 billion bond debt totaling approximately $ 18 billion. In this regard, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk said that the Russian Federation will not receive the best terms on your debt, than those that have bargained other creditors of the country.