Yesterday telephone dialogues "channel four" (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine) were intended to secure steady in the Donbas truce and to give impetus to the process of real political settlement, But the prospects due to strong variations in the positions of the parties, according to polled Last news professionals.
The leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine in the course of a telephone conversation on Wednesday night agreed to continue working in the "channel format" and to hold a summit of the Quartet in Paris on 2 October, and a meeting of the foreign Ministers of 12 September in Berlin. During the conversation the Leaders applauded the preservation of the Donbas ceasefire, and stressed the need of signing in the near future document about the diversion of arms. Attention Leaders also paid themes carrying out in Ukraine of the constitutional reform and local elections. Authorized the Quartet agreed to undertake in the coming weeks a decision on the elections in the Donbass on the basis of the laws of Ukraine and OSCE standards.
review of the Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Vladimir Jarigina, dialogues "channel four" were intended to secure steady in the Donbas truce and begin the process of political settlement of the conflict situation.
"3 members" Norman Quartet " still reached from Ukraine to conduct military points of the Minsk agreement. And in truth come this truce, and in truth took heavy weapons. These points made. Moreover, one must begin active implementation of economic and political points, because they understand: If Kiev how He does It until now, will continue to delay the implementation of these items or to report on the performance, in reality, distorting the execution or only creating the appearance of perform, there may be a pullback in the performance of military agreements, " said Zharikhin.
He said that If the supporters of a military solution to the conflict will see that " This is not the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements, but only a truce, Then after a while they will start to shoot again."
"That is, going back from the reached positions, for this reason, If not move on forward, We will roll back the progress made. For this reason, you ought to still learn by heart the present implementation of the agreements on economic and political issues, " he added.
according to his statement, and It will be sent to the forthcoming meeting in Paris.
for its part, the Deputy Director of the Center of Ukrainian studies and Belorussii MSU Bogdan Bezpalko evaluates the dialogues more pessimistic. According to him, the meeting was "an attempt to get out of a stalemate that went all the participants of the "channel four" in recent months ".
"But nothing definite on the outcome of the negotiations was not accepted and accepted it could not be, because the positions of the parties opposite," - said the expert.
for example, He clarified the discrepancy in the issue of local elections in the Donbass. The self-proclaimed DNR and LNR would like to obtain them 18 October and 1 November, respectively. Kiev believes This election is not relevant to the Minsk agreement, Western countries support this position.
"for this reason, in this situation the Minsk agreement, which require consensus between the participants, has turned into a "stalemate butting" when all stared at each other and not willing to give in. This is just one of the further stages of the negotiation process, which can be described as mutual pressure, which is clearly not going to end soon, " Bespalko said.
He added that at this stage of the negotiation process, " perhaps under pressure from the USA, European countries are already trying to put pressure on Russia so that it, for its part, made of LNR and DNR to waive declared before elections in local authorities ".
Bespalko not waiting for breakouts from the face-to-face meeting of leaders "channel four" in Paris.
"This will be an attempt somehow to force the other party to make concessions, unilateral in addition, LNR, DNR and Russia," He said.
However, He did not believe that at this stage the parties have the opportunity to discuss a new Treaty on the settlement of the Ukraine, or extension of the deadlines of a set of measures, which are calculated before the end of the current year. These questions will be possible to increase even closer to the end of the year.
"It (the meeting October 2) should go on the enforcement of existing agreements, which end at the end of 2015, then it will be possible to speak about new agreements, new format. If all of This will be delayed until the end of the year, then the Minsk agreement will lose its relevance, we will have to think about what may come to them for replacement - contract "Minsk-3" or Some other, or just the negotiation process on the background of military action, economic confrontation, or Something else, " - said the expert.