The forecast of the economic downturn in Ukraine in 2015 was revised down to minus 12% of GDP, said the world Bank.
This number is named in the policy documents prepared in connection with the allocation of Kiev in late summer budget-substituting loan of five hundred million dollars, reports news Agency. In April of this year, the WB gave a more benign Forecast - minus 7, 5%, and in January - even minus 2, 3%. For all that, and in the current documents in 2016 is forecasted real GDP growth of Ukraine by 1%. In comments to the current situation indicates that " after deepening in the 1st quarter of 2015 Recession in the 2nd quarter was slightly more than moderate ". In numbers it is minus 17, 2% in Q1 and minus 14, 7% for the second. So, Usually during the first half turned out to be minus 16%." The decline encompassed all sectors, including agriculture, - experts of the WB.- Industrial production for the first half decreased by 20, 5 per cent due to the ongoing conflict in the industrial East (countries) ".
The authors also predict that in the 2nd half of this year growth rates must slow down " because of low statistical base (given the deep recession in the 2nd half of 2014) "." Downturn expected coverage, the most in metallurgy and mining, especially in conflict affected - they add.- Retail trade is likely to be further reduced due to a significant decrease in real disposable income caused by the sharp increase of tariffs, depreciation of the currency and a drop in real earnings "." Problems in the banking sector, are expected to persist. In combination with compression of liquidity in Accordance with the settings of monetary policy, this will mean a further reduction of lending to the economy ", - experts say. Among economic issues refers to " the reduction of trade turnover with Russia (traditionally a key export market for Ukraine) "." Economic recovery is likely to come later than previously expected, and will not be starker - the analysts WB.- If the situation in the East will not deteriorate, is projected to return to positive, albeit low, growth, starting in 2016. Drivers are required to be net exports, investment and privatization ". Inflation is expected to accelerate in 2015 and will be relatively high in 2016 due to the tariff increase." due to the depreciation of the currency and increasing Inflation rates Generally during the period is expected to rise in 2015 to 50% ", - the document says. In September, the world Bank agreed to grant Ukraine a loan of five hundred million dollars.