Despite the evident progress in negotiations between Russia and the West on the Ukrainian settlement of the conflict, remain certain obstacles in the implementation of the peace process. But even if the West refuses to cooperate With Russia, the capital of Russia are options for major decisions, analysts of the research center Stratfor.
in the publication it is reported about the fact that a year later, the smoldering conflict in the East of Ukraine, relations between Kiev and the capital of Russia seem to be improving.
"The struggle on earth has ceased, there have been positive developments in negotiations In the past one week and both sides in early October began to pull heavy weapons from the contact line. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine agreed on a temporary deal on gas supplies from Russia, and will begin direct dialogue on repayment of debts of Ukraine to Russia on the bonds, which term ends in December of the current year ", - analysts wrote.
From the position of Stratfor, these events represent about the progress on the end of the confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis.
However, Despite the progress made, analysts believe that to resolve conflict in a broader sense until the end of the current year is not worth waiting for a number of reasons.
most importantly, the authors note, certain provisions of the Minsk Protocol signed by Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France in February 2015, can be interpreted in different ways. For example, not until the end is Clear what is meant by "special status" of the territories, which must be provided to the Donbass.
"The militias claim that status provides them long-term autonomy on issues such as defence and foreign policy, and at the same time, Kiev insists that the status will be provided on a time and applies only to areas such as budgetary and cultural politics. Keeping the ceasefire will pave the way for further negotiations, but the discussion of the final terms will be much more difficult ", - analysts believe.
Secondly, Stratfor continues, until now not solved the question of Amnesty for militias. Militias campaigning for a General Amnesty, while the Ukrainian government insists that the Amnesty should be individualized and selective, written by experts.
"Third, even if the Ukrainian government and the Militia would be able to come to a common opinion about the future path of the domestic political situation in Ukraine will cause problems. And at This same time, the Militias go on political concessions, ultra-nationalist group, the "Right sector" (banned in Russia - ed.) and " Freedom ", was opposed to any compromises With the militia, they could destabilize the political system. This puts Kyiv in a difficult situation - enabling progression to one of the parties to close the road to the other, " argue analysts.
From the position of Stratfor, another obstacle to resolving the conflict have the opportunity to become America's actions.
"certain European countries, including Germany and France, expressed interest in de-escalation of the conflict, but the U.S. retains an aggressive stance against Russia. Washington increased monetary and military support to Kiev. The U.S. is losing much less supporting punishment against Russia, and for this reason less of the European Union expressed interest in their reduction, " - experts underline.
However, concludes Stratfor, the last "obstacle" considers possible progress in negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the West.