The stock market.
Last week, domestic equities were in high demand. The MICEX index has updated an eight-year high, while the dollar PCT since the beginning of the year added 40 percent and broke below 900 points. This growth has occurred, including the expectations of a meeting of oil exporters in Doha. The meeting was held this weekend and alas, no agreement on quotas for black gold has not been reached. All this, coupled with falling Asian (Chinese CSI300 loses on Monday, about 1.5%) creates rather unfavorable external background for the Russian stock exchanges. We expect a decline in the major indexes in the range of 1-2%, the largest decline would be oil stocks, and stocks of the savings Bank which after the historical record was long overdue correction.
The domestic currency has all chances to resume its decline against the dollar and the Euro. And it's not just falling oil prices (a barrel of Brent loses on Monday about 4.5%), and in that outflow of the capital of the Western speculative funds, which could begin in the near future. Does not add to the strength of the ruble and current account surpluses. In the second quarter of scheduled repayments of foreign currency loans in the amount of 22.6 billion dollars, which creates an increased demand for dollars and euros. According to our forecasts may holidays the ruble will meet near the levels 69-70 RUB per one unit of us currency.
The turbulence in global financial markets slightly decreased, participants of the currency market has calmed down, but continue to monitor the situation. As we suggested earlier, a major pair of Forex - EUR/USD failed to break the upper boundary of the trading corridor and returned to the levels of mid-March - 1.12. With the continued divergence of monetary policies of the fed and the ECB, reaching 1.10 - a matter of several weeks, if not trading days. However, this scenario can be broken data on unemployment in the US, which will be released on Thursday 21st April, and the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates (on Thursday).
Alexey Vyazovskiy, senior analyst FG "Kalita-Finance"