Forecast American analytical Center Stratfor about the collapse of Russia till 2025 is " fiction ", says the head of the Presidium of the Council on foreign and defense policy) Fyodor Lukyanov.
American analytical center Stratfor first published forecast of development of the regions and the leading States of the world in the year 2025. According to the comments of the authors of the report, the European Union will never return to its former unity and will continue to operate in substantially the limited and fragmented. Germany is the leading European economy will face economic difficulties, because this will increase the regional role of Poland.
The report's authors also believe that the Russian Federation is waiting for fragmentation and the loss of influence of the Central authorities. Russian margin more strongly feel the growing influence of regional neighbors: the West - Poland, Hungary and Romania, the far East, USA, Japan and China.
reviews Lukyanova, Stratfor reports are " fiction "." citizens have a good imagination, a good knowledge of the market. Sometimes they Just guess", he said, adding that seriously Forecast to perceive not worth it.
on his part, Director of the Center for international security, IMEMO ran Alexei Arbatov said that " everyone can own Forecast, it all depends on preconditions ".
"If you accept the premise that Russia's GDP will fall by 20 times, for example, then all the other conclusions from this result, and they are able to be substantiated. For this reason, forecasts of thing is very tricky, it all depends on what the prerequisites are accepted, and how they are justified, " said the expert.
according to forecasts Arbatov, in the near 10 years, the EU will not collapse, But will be extended further, for example, this applies to Ukraine." in the next 10 years, as if Ukraine is not wanted, no matter what reforms did not take, it does not Shine to become an EU member. The EU in the previous 20 years had expanded so rapidly that he could not digest what we took. But gradually these problems will be solved ", - said Alexei Arbatov.
"Similarly, I have no doubt that the Russian Federation will not lose the North Caucasus, will retain their own supervision, and, moreover, it is this oversight will strengthen because go to new forms of surveillance. When this is not only due to the reliance on the loyalty of local leaders, which will have the absolute and unlimited power, it is by weaving the North Caucasus in our constitutional world, in our constitutional plane, " added the expert.