A full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, which provoke "hawks" from the United States, will not end with the victory of Ukraine, and its crushing defeat and the further disintegration of the country, says a Professor at the School of international relations name Edmund Walsh of Georgetown University Anatol Lieven, he writes in the material.
the expert believes that the issue of military assistance to Ukraine again has the opportunity to be raised in case of violation of the truce: "hawks" in the US as Republicans and Democrats, in this case, increase the pressure on Barack Obama. However, From the perspective of the whole number of analysts and former commissioners power structures on both sides of the Atlantic, this strategy is very poorly designed.
According to Lieven, If Ukraine joins the explicit war With Russia, the Ukrainian side will suffer a catastrophic defeat " regardless of the volume of arms deliveries to USA.
Lieven notes that the "attempt to involve Ukraine in the planning of a war of this kind will increase the degree of "authoritarian nationalism" in the country that will only alienate her from the EU.
The Professor was of the opinion that, instead of to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Western leaders have an obligation to enforce the truce by diplomatic means." Despite the battle for Debaltsevo, there are chances that it (the cease-fire - approx. Ed.) work. At least the chances are higher than in past times, " writes Lieven.
For this purpose, according to his vision, the governments of France and Germany must show " extraordinary decisiveness and firmness ".
On the one hand, according to the Professor, they must convince Moscow that any reduction in punishment will occur only if "clear and consistent pressure on the militias of Donbass", so that they do not violate the truce.
On the reverse side continues Lieven, it is necessary to understand Kiev and the hardliners in the capital of the United States that have significant assistance to Ukraine, as well as talks on its accession to the EU, is possible If the current Kyiv government will keep its promise of providing the Donbass autonomy.
The Professor also stressed that the restoration of the crumbling of the Ukrainian economy can be only together With Russia, " and not against it ". If, of course, the EU is not ready to demand from European citizens to sacrifice themselves for the sake of Ukraine, adds Lieven.
dialogues " channel four ", held on 12 February, took place against a background of a sharp aggravation of the situation in the Donbass, instigated by the Ukrainian law enforcers who, having increased strength, began to storm the position of the militia. According to the results of the meeting of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany adopted a package of measures involving, for example, a cease-fire in the Donbass With fifteen February, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the development of a security zone.