If you believe the manual that provocative actions by North Korea can be expected around the time of elections in the United States, according to a new study.

Over the past 60 years, North Korea's leaders tried to create tension during the American election - especially in recent years, says the Center for strategic and international studies.

For example, North Korea conducted missile tests and then nuclear test shortly after he was elected President Barack Obama.

"A major test will be an attempt to intimidate the new President," said Victor Cha, one of the authors of the study. "North Korea chooses specific points, from which they will receive maximum attention from the world, and the United States in particular." "It may be 6 nuclear test, it can be launching their missiles or satellite in orbit," added Cha. The study is scheduled to be published this week on the CSIS website Beyond Parallel.

But some analysts believe that the shift in provocations of North Korea, from symbolic actions to a particular military trials will not happen, as Kim Jong-UN came to power after the death of his father in 2011, These analysts believe that with the coming to power of Kim Jong-UN was a reduction in lethal provocations, which are mainly symbolic, such as in 2010 - the controversial shelling of South Korean Yeonpyeong island or the sinking of its warship Cheonan with a torpedo.

Only one has occurred in recent years - placing landmines in the demilitarized zone that wounded two South Korean soldiers last year.

Over the last few years have seen an exponential jump in the number of North Korean test, according to statistics 38North, including 15 missile tests in 2016.

Any provocation carry an increased risk of escalation in these days for two reasons, according to analysts.
First, the South Korean government after 2010 has allowed military commanders to respond to provocation without waiting for the decision of politicians.

"They most likely will retaliate sooner than in the past, they are also more likely to respond exponentially," said former CIA analyst Bruce Cligner.

And secondly, Cligner said that the growing nuclear potential of North Korea will give the North an illusion of invulnerability.
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