Ataev: prerequisites for the confrontation between Russia and the West over Transcaucasia no

Objective prerequisites for the Caucasus became an Apple of discord between Russia and the West, No, said the chief of sector of Caucasus studies of the Russian Institute of strategic studies (RISS) Arthur Ataev, explaining a recent report by the American private intelligence analysis organization Stratfor.

in the report of experts of Stratfor noted That the center of confrontation between Russia and the West has the ability to be moved from the Ukraine to the Caucasus - Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Stratfor is often called the " shadow CIA ": the organization provides analytical data on the situation in the world and is engaged in the development of forecasts on major strategic directions.

"it is very difficult to verify a single Transcaucasian policy of the West, it is difficult to verify a single Transcaucasian Russia's policy. There are Georgian direction, Armenian, Azerbaijani, that Is not the case, saying the conditional language, " polygon ". Too difficult with the current economic, political, socio-cultural environment to qualify the region as a single field. For this reason, no Objective prerequisites for the Transcaucasian region was a bone of contention between the West and Russia, today or in the foreseeable future No, " Atayev said at a press conference on Thursday.

for its part, head of the Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute Vladimir Yevseyev said that What is happening in the Caucasus will affect more global processes.

"Apparently, the vector of Russian-American relations will be adjusted after 2020, i.e. in the period of five years we will wait for the confrontation. This confrontation, on the one hand, the example of Ukraine teaches That war is bad, and such a war in the Caucasus nobody wants. There is a desire to come to a common understanding between the players, despite their different desires. For this reason, in the South Caucasus, most likely in the next 5 years will be some uncertainty " - said Yevseyev.

according to his vision, most likely of Russian-Georgian relations do not deteriorate.

"Anyway, I don't see a realistic scenario, in addition to the forced change of power in Georgia to the Russian-Georgian relations have become worse than at present. As for the Russian-Armenian relations, then I expect that Russia in the 1st place was more active in Armenia economically. There are no serious reasons to talk about the deterioration of Russian-Armenian relations, " he added.

the expert also predicts That Russian-Azerbaijani relations will improve.

"Whether it is expressed in the construction of a new radar station (radar), or conducting exercises. Station radar military point of view is not necessary, this is necessary as the object of military cooperation. But if this object arises, this means that Russia and Azerbaijan will restore military cooperation, " said Yevseyev.


sections: Politics