Petroleum boundaries

Petroleum cost from the beginning of this year was lifted for the first time to 70 dollars for barrel. The rise in prices for "oil" was positively reflected in work of home stock market, counters of many companies have spread upwards. However experts are not inclined to consider such lifting will last long.

According to analysts of fund "Linvest" Rushana Zaripova (the expert?s opinion is granted by agency "Коmmentarii.ru"), a principal reason for petroleum prices rise is covered in redundant monetary liquidity. "It was formed as a result of anti-recessionary measures conducted by the largest countries, and as funds transfer of more conservative investors who practically have not suffer from crisis, into less risky assets. Dollar cost decline in comparison with basic world currencies also provokes revaluation of nonmonetary assets in relation to the American currency".

Meanwhile OPEC members consider what to strengthen an oil recovery while early. They won?t adopt a decision about oil recovery expansion on the regular session of the countries petroleum exporters in September, if price for barrel does not reach 100 dollars.

Raw market analysts doubt that a three-value mark of a petroleum price will be overcome. According to main economist of managing company Finam management Alexander Osin, in the short-term period prices for "easy" petroleum will test resistance of 70-72 dollars for barrel. " Correction downwards from these significances is possible. In the second half of the year rates of petroleum prices increase will probably be reduced against increase in market risks and volatility indicators of prices of investment instruments. In the end of 2009 in my opinion, possible price level on "easy" petroleum is 80 dollars for barrel", - the expert concludes.

Will Russian economy manage to cope with petroleum prices growth more and recover from crisis? "Albeit in our country, set of factors depends on raw materials cost, stabilization does not shine us yet. Besides, at a rise in raw materials prices, instead of aspiration to changes, Russia can take a waiting attitude, without undertaking any measures for struggle against crisis", - analyst at Group of companies Region Sergey Burov considers.

It is necessary to notice that petrol sellers have most fastly reacted to a petroleum price rise. For the last 2 weeks petrol cost in many Russian regions has lifted on the average on 30 %.

Artem Krasnov

sections: Economics