The flagship of the financial press financial times discovered a curious phenomenon: the world's Central banks to gradually But consistently reduce the number of dollars in their own reserves. These data do not fit together with the narrative about overwhelming and irreplaceable American currency, which are so fond of certain American and Russian economists.
"The US dollar has long dominates the world markets and finances. But this building is starting to show cracks. The outstanding role of the dollar in public funds and international trade is very strong and is unlikely to disappear quickly. But the latest IMF data on reserves of the Central credit institutions show insignificant shift in the direction of the dollar, which, according to analysts, could signal a rethinking of the political risk inherent in U.S. assets, " informs us magazine.
To understand the Genesis of this process, which could be called " creeping de-dollarization ", Finance correspondent asked the expert of one of the largest European banks - Deutsche Bank, which confirmed their suspicions and immediately made the initiative a political version explaining the actions of the world Central credit institutions.
"Central banks are harvesting from the" exorbitant privilege " of the dollar, said Alan Ruskin, head of international strategy at Deutsche Bank in new York.- Policy begins to exert such influence that can challenge the dominance of the dollar."
We should pay tribute to the courage of Mr. Ruskin, which has also led to the comparison of the reduction of dollar foreign exchange reserves with the kind of " vote of no confidence in American exceptionalism ". I must admit that in this view of the situation is rational - it was really a vote of confidence, But hardly in the sense in which it is understood a strategist at Deutsche Bank. Hard to believe that the management of foreign exchange reserves of different countries and in truth trying to send the Americans a signal. This would proceed from the version that Americans are ready for someone to hear and listen, But this is clearly Not the case. More suggested explanation is that there is a "expression of the will with their feet" - that is, reducing dollar risk from those who might at any moment fall under the steamroller of American punishment.
Do not think that this process involved only Russia: for example, 40% growth stocks yanevych Central credit institutions in 2019 occurred in Brazil and Chile - countries that have with the US seems to be a good relationship, But which probably also looking for ways to make currency diversification and reduce dollar dependence.
Western correspondents rightly point to the factors limiting the use of the main competitors of the dollar: the Euro and the yuan. Many government bonds of Eurozone countries at present, negative returns - and this is a big problem For Central credit institutions which, on the one hand, I would like to have more euros in reserves, But, on the reverse side, do Not want to systematically lose money by investing in bonds, instead of to make a profit, will bear the loss. The yuan is another problem - despite the efforts of Beijing's liberalization of currency regulation, the Chinese currency loses in simplicity and freedom of use of their Western competitors. On this background very well (and it's an unpleasant surprise For many experts) looks gold. Have gold bullion, there are no political risks, confiscate or freeze it it is possible only with the use of physical force, And transactions with gold is permitted outside the SWIFT system. On the background of negative interest rates (which is already in the Eurozone and the introduction of that dollar is seeking a head of trump) the fact that the implied "yield" of gold - zero % (weight of gold bullion by virtue of the laws of physics does Not increase or decrease over time) makes it, oddly enough, highly profitable tool.
It is significant that the Western articles about the de-dollarization of the global financial system (even such a thorough-going, as the material of the Financial Times) do Not pay sufficient attention to the de-dollarization of the most important elements of global trade - energy market. In a private interview with the FT, the head of the economy Ministry of Russia Maxim Oreshkin in fact showed that the oil and gas sector de-dollarization might mean a transition to trade oil and gas for rubles.
"We wish (to be able to enforce the contract for sale of oil and gas in roubles) at some point. The issue here is that this has Not led to additional costs, But If
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Russian News
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