Every six months the IMF analysts published a special " report on global financial stability." This report meticulously examines the governments, Central banks And private financial institutions around the world wishing to see the potential risks And hazards to defend themselves. As the document is created, one of the main organizations of the world financial system, its language And conclusions are often quite reticent. But This time, a dry analytical creation emveefovskie bureaucrats in the information field caused a storm of emotions. Reporters And Financial analysts read it many unpleasant about the future of the world economy.
One of the most striking reactions came from the pen of renowned British financial journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who wrote in a column For Telegraph:
The term "Financial repression" used by the Creator of Telegraph, refers to the entire set of administrative And economic decisions that make it impossible to protect the savings of ordinary people, organizations And pension funds from inflation." Financial repression " Is something that the Central banks of the US, EU And Japan are going To have to force investors to invest In increasingly risky projects in the hope that It will motivate the economy.
in practice it turns out that a significant portion of the money goes to the so-called companies-zombies that have the ability to only be in debt, have the ability to earn money and develop, And to pay their loans will not be able, most likely, never. During the previous fall 2008, the epicenter of the financial issues were in the area of "toxic" mortgage loans issued by U.S. borrowers, which, in principle, not had a chance to pay off these loans. At the present time, And it is at This point, the IMF And Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the same problem extends to Almost the entire global economy, and in the form of bad debtors already are not the American poor And unemployed, and the organization of (sometimes very large) with many assets And employees, but no profits And a large debt burden.
We must pay tribute to the IMF analysts, who not only found the courage to point out the cracks in the Foundation of the world economy, in addition to count specific numbers of how much money she can evaporate at the first sign of recession. Perhaps so as not to scare the audience too much (or, conversely, to demonstrate how hard the consequences will be even with the implementation not the worst-case scenario), they have made the calculation under the assumption that the economic slowdown would be "less than half" of the shock of 2008. Here's what they concocted:
"in the eight major countries (the world economy.- Approx. Ed.) debt organizations continue to increase, and their ability to service debt is deteriorating. We consider the potential impact in the event of a significant deceleration of economic increase, amounting to half of the slowdown During the global financial fall of 2007-2008. Our conclusion is a sobering warning: the debt of organizations that are unable to cover interest expense at the expense of their parish funds, which We call "at-risk debt works" could rise to $ 19 trillion. Almost 40% of the total debt of the plants in the considered countries which include United States, China And certain countries of Europe."
Nineteen trillion dollars Is an astronomical sum. Corporate defaults are even part of this huge debt iceberg will be just a gravestone not only for economic growth, but even on the global economy or its significant parts. To understand the dimensions of the problem one can cite one figure: official Federal debt of the United States - about 22 trillion dollars. In the hands of the governments of the major countries in the world - the debt bomb, the detonation of which the effect can be compared with the default of the United States. It is important to understand that the Chances of that organization, who collected these debts (And this includes even such "darlings" of the Russian And world media as Uber, Tesla, WeWork), suddenly start to earn enough profit in order For them to pay (just pay, not to pay interest), microscopic.
The chances are that in the current environment they have the opportunity to receive some profitable competitors, is zero, because to compete with companies that often have the ability to use credit money in order to sell their service at a loss, and after gaining further loans (as do Uber, WeWork), Is an impossible task. In the end, most of the world economy is in the process of " zombification ": the organization transformed from producers of products And services in the fast livers of loans And This can't end well.
in the information field, more often than not have a voice (and the voices of the world's financial mainstream) calling for Central banks to stop pumping unproductive organizations. American business television channel CNBC quoted Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, Professor, scientist, Singapore University And former head of group of economic advisers of Mastercard organizations, which said at the Forbes Symposium in Singapore:
"I firmly believe that zero or negative interest rates in truth cause harm to the economy in the long term. Let's start with the fact that zero interest rates are poisoning the business enterprise environment. Addiction to cheap money Is the problem, not the solution."
New managing Director of the international monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva started her 1st press conference with a poetic allusion to the fact that the global economy soon, there will be difficulties: "When I came here, it felt colder. And I thought about my favorite Russian poet Pushkin. And I would like to start with the line: "a breath of autumn chill - the road begins to freeze ". And, unfortunately, This is the best comparison with what is happening in the global economy ".
If the calculation of its partners about the size of the debt bomb under the world economy is correct, then the IMF will soon be other relevant Pushkin's lines: something about "grief" And " mug ", and the search for certainty in the context of depression.
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