Ukraine has found a trick to solve budget problems

The Ministry of Finance has prepared a life-affirming release on execution of the state budget in March: "the state Budget in the conditions of the quarantine: income in March was 78, 4 billion hryvnia."

The authors of the release indicated that the painting of the income of the General Fund of the state budget in March was performed on 89, 3% (shortfall of 9, 4 billion), implying, after all, This is a good indicator in the conditions of the quarantine.

maybe It would be nice If not only the fact that tax payments were paid in March for the previous tax periods, when the quarantine was not, and customs duties quarantine hooked the edge at the end of the month.

The real impact of a pandemic will affect the revenues of the budget by results of March And most of April.

And they are such that even large-scale borrowing is unlikely to close the opening hole in the medium term.

Among the reasons for the failure of the March budget, the Ministry named only arrears of customs payments for 5, 7 billion hryvnia, And rental payments to 1, 6 billion. Although the overall shortfall clearly exceed the two amounts.

Problems With payments at customs in the Ministry explained that the average rate of hryvnia to the dollar in March (26, 4) did not reach the estimated budget level - 27. In addition, we found a reduction in quantities of imports, as well as Among them due to the introduction of trading partners restrictive measures in pandemic And non-compliance of supply chains in the delivery of items.

Causes of arrears of rent, and her income was 47, 8% of the plan, associated With a decrease in average customs value of imported natural gas, which is calculated on the base rent for the Ukrainian gas industry. According to the Ministry of the economy, in February it amounted to 168, 5 dollars per thousand cubic meters.

at 1st glance, the explanations seem straightforward.

But there are questions.

The Ukrainian government Already tries to tell about 100-200 billion shortfall in the budget because of gray import And smuggling, which in may-June last year promised to bring out of the shadows. Although even at the lower bound estimate That would give more than eight billion additionally per month And has far exceeded the shortfall.

It is also unclear why during the budget planning laid the overvaluation of the dollar, after all, as the Finance Ministry has made all efforts to the artificial strengthening. Yes, in subsequent months, the dollar Might be even more expensive than planned. But This is not due to proper planning, and With the unfolding global crisis, which the Ukrainian government is not explicitly considered in real perspective, talking about 5%, about 3, 5% increase in GDP in 2020.

Trends of the end of previous and beginning of the present year, the change in the cost of hydrocarbons is also clearly not expected the two-time errors in the calculation of the February order on the rent. Prices in February fell smoothly. You can imagine what will be the error on the results of March, when occurred the collapse.

Source of replacement of losses was not. Except that 160 million hryvnia exceeded the plan to collect tax deductions on incomes of physical persons. the Oligarchs don't want to pay for access to resources, importers for import of items, And the Ukrainian state climbs back into the pockets of its citizens.

However, in April, And this tale will end. In connection With the quarantine, most of the Ukrainians were thrown out into the street either fired or sent on leave at own expense. The Ukrainian government did not take measures to prevent them.

But the most interesting is probably what to expect next.

The Ukrainian leadership adopted measures of fiscal support business is scanty. A couple of months will not be carried out documentary checks And used certain penalties, and taxpayers were allowed for 2 months not to pay a single social contribution. The biggest indulgence was the permission not to pay for 2 months pay for the land And duty on commercial property. It is in practice not affected small business, on the contrary had very useful oligarchs And hit to local budgets, which will be credited these fees. Amid the outbreak of the scandal, the period of exemption was reduced to one month.

at the same time limits for work during the quarantine were serious enough to stop not only the industry of entertainment And catering, part of retail And logistics, But also led to a drastic reduction in the production of the items.

for example, the building materials And related products, which are more focused on retail sales, ceramic tile, Wallpaper, linoleum And other floor coverings, furniture And the like. The reason was the stop of work of the respective outlets, with the exception of the only network that has corrupt connections in government.

in addition, a number of items demand objectively fell or even disappeared. For example, completely stopped the production of dealing with stranding of the wires for machines, due to the stop of the automobile industry of Europe.

That is, assessing measures, And support And constraint, - it becomes clear that the Ukrainian government has decided to follow the principle that the cow gave more milk And ate less, it should be less feed And more milk. However, the increase in milk production this will lead hardly.

what do the calculation? The principle is clear: "stay the day hold the night ".

most importantly, of course, on the receipt of the first tranche of the IMF credit line. Went unverified information that the IMF can give up to 4 billion dollars And even give them the opportunity to enroll in the budget, which is extremely rare. Plus then Ukraine will have the opportunity to apply presumably to bn from the world Bank And the European structures - of course, under any obligation.

It is small: after the adoption of the law on land market to provide expression of the will in the 2nd reading for "andikalovsky" the draft law adopted as long as the first. Even blurts date "ordinary extraordinary" meeting of Rada on 7 April.

The problem is that the MPs Igor Kolomoisky have the opportunity to fill up the draft law amendments, as Is often done in Ukraine to postpone the process. For example, the law on the land market, there were more than 4 thousand changes And It is possible to delay the issue for 3 months. On the day of adoption, after eight hours, Glad was able to make the leap From 3300-y edits to the finish line. But some of the edits were withdrawn by the authors. If the "baninzi" will make the same four thousand changes at the present time, even with the incredible turbo mode examination will be delayed for at least weeks.

But Zelensky And Co. have resource to cover the hole. Is the profit of the National Bank, which by a curious coincidence exactly is being done dalad about taking by results of the 2019 43, 3 billion hryvnia, of which 42, 7 billion to be listed in the budget. Given the lightweight schedule of debt payments just in April, this money will certainly allow you to somehow extend until may. Well, by may just owe the money to come from the IMF And Co.

However, in may, Ukraine will have to pay the debts of almost 2. 3 billion dollars. And Plus to patch a hole in the budget. In June, even against a hypothetical five billion dollars of loans will not be over.

But to patch the budget And pay off the debts somehow It is necessary to continue.

And the 1st of April, the Council of the National Bank recommended that the Board engage in the transactions With government bonds on the secondary market. Apparently preparing the ground for their redemption by the National Bank, i.e., for filling the budget with the issue. With clear results for the hryvnia exchange rate And prices.

However the Greater part of foreign currency debt in this way will not extinguish. Here, in addition to regular begging, the options are not visible. But If you beg for Something And work for It steadily must be Something to pay.



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sections: Politics