The guardian: 2015 will be a turning point for the world economy

In the coming year the world economy will be significant changes in many countries by 2015 will bring hope for a significant improvement of the financial-economic situation, but there are several factors that have the opportunity to further exacerbate existing problems, writes.

the magazine calls several risk factors - oil prices, economic problems of Russia and Ukraine, being Chinese and American economies and the crisis in the Eurozone.

As for oil, on the One hand, falling prices on black gold will have a positive impact on consumer demand and reduce the costs of organizations. On the reverse side, analysts warn about the fact That the collapse of prices can make a " credit stress, which will affect the economy of Venezuela and Iran, but Also will affect the energy industry of the USA, reported in the publication.

From oil prices depends on the economic well-being of Russia. If Russia will not be able to cross the economic difficulties in the coming year, they will cause a " Domino effect " in the neighboring With Russia and the European Union countries, says the guardian.

similarly in 2015, attention will be confined to two of the world's largest economies - China and the United States. 2014-the year was quite difficult for Beijing, he tried to cope With the excellent volume of overdue loans associated with the strategy " improve at whatever became " even in 2008. It is now Clear That the growth of the Chinese economy in 2015 will be much slower than previously. Whatever it is slow, we should expect That the volume of exports to China from other countries in 2015 will fall, and in addition, extremely cheap goods from China have the ability to trigger deflation, for example in the Eurozone, writes the magazine.

One of the biggest challenges for US in the coming year will be a possible Federal reserve's decision to increase the basic interest rate. At this point in time, the rate remains at record low levels - 0, 25% per annum, however, it is Clear That the relative improvement in the global economy over the past period of time sooner or later will lead to increased. Until then, until not it will be obvious, the impact of the rate increase on the economic situation, investors will take a wait and world markets will fluctuate, says the journal.

As for the Eurozone, 2015 Also has her uncertainty about the future. In 2014 the Eurozone failed to cross the danger of deflation and to show strong growth, and these problems will go in the coming year. All measures taken by the European Central Bank in the past months, not become a panacea for all issues such as the fight against deflation. The ECB, in the opinion of the publication, there is only one powerful weapon - quantitative easing - in which the Central Bank buys financial assets to inject a certain number of money into the economy. Until now this policy was not carried out due to restrictions From Germany, but If the ECB is not going to quantitative easing in 2015, this will cause an open panic among investors.

In early 2015, the global economy will be at a crossroads. One path will lead to a vibrant recovery, which many governments expected With the end of 2007, due to falling prices for petroleum products, Which is useful for clients as Well as US economic growth. The other path will lead the world economy for the next recession, as the solution of important issues that arose in 2008-2009, further delay was impossible, concludes the guardian.


sections: Politics