Ruble evening fell under the pressure of the oil, but as long as increases against the Euro

MOSCOW, 13 Mar RIA Novosti/Prime, Dmitry Mayorov. The rate of the Russian national currency evening fell against the dollar and increasingly gained against the Euro, which allowed for a reduction in the value of the dual currency basket.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation and supported the Ruble solutions and verbal representatives of his boss, But falling oil prices put pressure on the Ruble in the evening.

The dollar calculations "tomorrow" to 18. 48 MSC were increased to 0, 31 ruble - to 61, 50 ruble, the Euro dropped to 0, 57 ruble - to 64, 60 rubles, from the capital exchange.

The Brent oil price for This hour has decreased by 1, 9% to 55, 95 dollars per barrel.


The ruble during the trading day Friday was mostly up against the dual currency basket. Thus the main contribution to growth was made by a decrease of the Euro against the ruble amid weakening of European currencies on the Forex level 1, 05 dollar.

However, during the day the Ruble went in plus and against the dollar. This contributed to the decision of the CBR and the statements of its head Elvira Nabiullina.

Despite the Fact that the rate of the Central Bank was reduced (which traditionally leads to a decrease in the national currency, the ruble still increased in the first minutes of this growth on the event reached 40 cents. This is largely due to the fact that the market has long been preparing for the easing of monetary policy (DCT) and considered in courses such decision. In addition, it was quite aggressive - just 1 percentage point, although it could be two, as the market expected.

In addition to solving the CBR its influence on the last working day of the week of the 13th and had verbal intervention of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. For example, she voiced conducted by the Central Bank the fair value of the ruble in the current environment, calling it undervalued by 10%. That is, When the current 61 ruble per dollar ought 55, 5 ruble.

in addition, Nabiullina said that started on the 9th of March, the program of quantitative easing DCT from the ECB will increase the attractiveness of ruble-denominated instruments. This can also be attributed to verbal interventions in favor of the ruble.

However at the end of the day, the Ruble has lost ground against the dollar amid falling oil prices below 56 dollars per barrel for Brent.

However, It is encouraging that the Central Bank considers the Ruble is undervalued and at the same time predicts that in 2015 the average annual Price for oil Urals will be 50-55 per barrel, That is, at the current level.


Money supply M2 in Russia again narrows, i.e. cash in the system becomes less said Andrew Goyle from the organization RoboForex." It says to create a kind of artificial liquidity shortage, which up to a certain point will play in support of the ruble, " he added.

However, you cannot ignore the geopolitical factor: as long as against Russia economic punishment and until Not set visible to all point in the dialogue with Ukraine, the Ruble will remain under pressure, " said Goyle.

If the Central Bank will continue a gradual movement in the direction of lowering the rate, the economy will Not quickly stabilize, says Irina Rogova from the Forex Club group of companies.

"Now, when meeting the Central Bank left behind, the key factors influencing the Ruble will again be oil prices and geopolitical situation in Ukraine. Taking into account the dynamics of black gold, which it shows in the last days, it is impossible to say with certainty that at least one of these factors is without a doubt positive. In the beginning of the week the Ruble may re-start growth, provided that the received information about reducing the number of operating drilling rigs, " said she.

"it is possible that the pair EUR/USD will test level 60, break down which will open the way to a minimum of March at level 59, 08. But even the slightest signs of escalating confrontation in Ukraine have the opportunity again to provoke the fall of the ruble. So, next week it may be that the quotation EUR/USD will be maintained within the range 59, 00 - 62, 6 ", - said Rogov.


sections: Politics