MOSCOW, 8 Jun - RIA Novosti/Prime, Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble in the first part of the day is stabilised by the growth trend of the rising price of oil ( 0, 3%, To 62, 8 $ per barrel Brent) and Euro Forex (1, 116 USD).
The dollar calculations "tomorrow" to fifteen. 18 Moscow time has decreased from its previous closing at 0, 40 rubles and equal to 55, 85, - 0, 18 - To 62, 44 of the ruble, follows from the data of capital exchange.
The ruble in the middle of trading on Monday, stabilized with a tendency to increase to the levels it was last closed. Thus, the rapid growth of involut last week (for a few cents) gave way to consolidation courses and attempt correction of the ruble up.
Statements of commissioners of the CBR last week, on the one hand, signaled maintaining pressure on the Ruble, as the stated target Amount of reserves in billion five hundred dollars, To which they will be brought in in the next few years. However, the regulator makes a promise to approach the problem carefully, without causing increase of the volatility, and intervention have the opportunity to be stopped for a while.
However, in the 2nd part of last week, the Central Bank continued to purchase foreign currency, although the Volume of interventions and decreased on Thursday To 131 million dollars to 200 million who bought in the last time period. Number of securities acquired from 13 may (when he resumed purchasing after a long break) more than 3, 2 billion dollars in the framework of interventions.
so, it is possible that the Central Bank will suspend the purchase of foreign currency, If not done so already on the last working day of the week (will know tomorrow). Such a step would signal aimed at the suppression of the increased volatility in the domestic foreign exchange market, say experts.
the price for oil remains under pressure in the area is 63 dollars per barrel mark Brent. National Bureau of statistics of China has informed that the Volume of imports in may fell by 17, 6% in annual terms. The export volume decreased by 2.5% compared with the index 2014. Crude oil imports declined in may by 11% in annual terms, up To 23, 24 million tons. This indicates a decrease in the demand for "black gold" from China.
Additional pressure on the Price of oil have expectations of investors on the issue of achieving a Treaty between Iran and the six mediators on the nuclear program on June 30.
in the upcoming week we will have another meeting of the Bank of Russia, which we'll Probably see another lowering of the key rate, but the decrease is unlikely to exceed 0, 5 percentage points, which can be a local positive for the ruble, says Ivan Kopeikin from BCS organization." An additional positive factor for the Russian currency are currently some reduction of tensions in Ukraine, " he said.
"for its part, the pressure on the Ruble and some support for the dollar have a strong enough data from the American labour market for may, published on the last working day of the week. For this reason, after a slight correction the reduction of the ruble may resume. The nearest strong support for the pair dollar/Ruble is the mark of 55, " said Kopeikin.
Until then, as long as the Central Bank will not indicate the upper range for the weakening of the ruble, speculators can safely continue to play against the Russian currency, says Vasily Oleynik from the organization " Ah Ti invest." If the lower bound on the dollar now clearly marked at around $ 50, the upper boundary as long as it remains vague, " he says.
"currently, the dollar-Ruble after a long consolidation entered a new trading range with the limits of 55-60, which will spend the coming weeks. While still a high probability of a hike in the dollar to the upper limit of this range, and there will need to observe the actions of the regulator, " Oleynik.