The zero duty for Ukraine on the import of objects to the European Union will lead to negative consequences for the economy, says Economist Alexander Koltunova in the publication on the Internet representation of the movement.
The economist recalls that a free trade area with the European Union opens with the beginning of 2016 in the framework of the signed in 2014 to the Treaty on the Union with the EU. At the moment 98% of % duties on the import of objects to the site of the European Union no longer valid, emphasizes Koltovich.
Despite the possibility of duty-free export of many items in the EU, in trading there are economic barriers, the most important of which is the inconsistency of the Ukrainian subjects of European standards and technical regulations, I'm sure Koltovich.
"And the Ukrainian machine-building products in practice does not fully comply with EU standards, therefore, it will not be delivered. As a result in Ukraine will close the engineering enterprise, " notes the Economist.
Another problem is that Ukraine is not ready to open their markets to European items at significantly lower import duties.
"here and low competitiveness of all industries in the country. Oh and not to forget about the process of de-industrialization that is happening in Ukraine in the last few years. Because of this, the Danger posed Zeroing of import duties from January 1, 2016, may eventually kill the economy of Ukraine ", - writes Koltovich.
pointing to information of the state statistics service of Ukraine, the Economist writes that the fall of Ukraine's exports in January-April 2015 $ 34, 6%. In addition, the States of the Eurasian economic Union (EEU) has introduced protective measures in trade, in consequence of which, in the opinion of the economist, Ukraine's exports to these countries " will fall to its lowest level ".
Koltunova writes that, according to experts of the Centre for integration studies of the Eurasian development Bank (EDB), the scale of likely losses of the state from reducing the level of trade and economic relations with Russia and the Eurasian economic Union due to the signing of the economic part of the agreement about unification with the European Union is defined in $ 33 billion every year, or 19% of Ukrainian GDP.
"in full realization of the shock scenario for Russian-Ukrainian relations when adopted in the study of EDB hypothesis would have cost Ukraine more than 100 billion dollars," writes Koltovich.
in addition, Russia has made a proposal to set quotas for Ukrainian subjects of the so-called risk groups in the case of the implementation of the Treaty on unification of Ukraine with the European Union, And at the same time in Ukraine is already underway, the decline in GDP and industrial production, said Koltovich.
The economist believes that Ukraine has a chance to get " maximum economic effect of the EEU. In the case of the destruction of relations with the Union, the country may lose its entire industrial economy, according to Koltovich.
"A possible way out of this deep economic decline in Ukraine today, only one is the intensification of the processes to restore cooperative relations, as well As the development and implementation of the roadmap for the establishment of free trade between Ukraine and the Eurasian economic Union, sectoral programmes and cross-border cooperation, with the possibility of joining this Union," the Economist.