Alexey Bogdanovsky. Risks To the economy of Ukraine "only high" because of the conflict in the East of the country, delaying discussions with creditors of the country and flawed policies of the government, according to a report by the IMF on the Ukrainian economy, released on Tuesday.
"Risks To the economic Outlook remain high. Risks To economic improvement for the Most part are negative, reflecting, first, the uncertainty in the duration and depth of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, the renewal of discussions on debt (this can disrupt the movement of capital) and thirdly, deficiencies in the implementation of policy measures, according to the IMF report.
in addition, negatively affected the process of restructuring credit institutions, according to Experts of the IMF. Higher than expected inflation may reduce domestic demand, warn in the Fund. For economic rise will be the most important settlement of the situation in the Donbass, the IMF thinks." Among the positive aspects is that the resolution of the conflict can restore confidence and growth (economy) faster than projected, " write the Experts of the IMF.
in General, the economy remains vulnerable, although starting to show signs of stabilization, predicts the IMF. The government's efforts to implement the Foundation's program in the IMF said there is " strong start ". The IMF also supported the restructuring of Ukraine's debt, about which there has been dialogue with creditors.
Ukraine is already a long time in fact remains on the brink of default, the national currency over one year fell by More than 3 times. State dog of Ukraine at the end of July 2015 amounted to 68 billion dollars, 40 billion foreign debt.
The four-year Program of financial assistance to Ukraine was approved by the IMF Board of Directors on March eleven. The program provides for the allocation of Fund 17, 5 billion dollars, and all international creditors over four years - $ 40 billion. Ukraine in mid-March has already received the 1st tranche of the IMF $ 5 billion. Just in 2015 Kiev hopes to receive $ 10 billion. The IMF last week blessed the allocation of the next tranche to Ukraine in 1, 7 billion.
last week, investment Firm Franklin Templeton, together with three other bondholders of Ukraine this week made a proposal to the country to write off 5% of the debt. Creditors for the first time considered the possibility of withdrawal of funds, indicating the message about the fact that in June the country had invited the organizations to write off 40% of the debt. The first period of redemption of Eurobonds will come on September 23 of the current year.