The process of peaceful settlement in the Ukraine in fact suspended because of the unwillingness of Kiev to resolve political issues in the framework of the Minsk agreements, But full-scale military action, Despite the worsening situation in the South-East of the country will not, according to polled Last news professionals. in the Donbas region in recent days, the situation remains tense. The conflicting parties are saying about the frequent cases of violations of the " silence mode ", blaming one another in the contraction of military equipment to the demarcation line. All This happens against the background of the lack of any progress in the Minsk peace process. Senior scientific worker of the Center of Caucasus and regional security of MGIMO (University) of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Nikolai Silaev States that today can talk about the fact that the Minsk settlement Process in Ukraine in fact stopped. "The problem is that the Ukrainian side does not fulfill the political clauses of the contract. Twice hand went to the initialling of the agreement for the withdrawal of weapons (a caliber of less than 100 millimeters), and twice the Ukrainian side refused to initial and sign, " - said the expert. the main issue is the question of the special status of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk national republics. This measure is provided by the Minsk agreements, the DPR and LPR are ready to be out of Ukraine Under condition of provision of such status, However, " Kiev It is not satisfied, a related waiver of the measures, the continuation of the fire ". "Probably waiting for the Ukrainian side, when will the terms of the settlement provided for in the complex of measures on execution of the Minsk agreements (until the end of 2015), and then she will put the question on transfer under the supervision of Kiev boundaries of the LNR and DNR with Russia. Understandable, because This does not follow from the set of measures, However, This trend has. Maybe the Ukrainian side expects that it will exhaust the Donetsk and Lugansk shelling, and thus will force them to recognize the jurisdiction of Kiev without any reservations, " explained Silaev. Despite This, the expert does not believe that Kyiv to decide on the restoration of a full-scale military action, because today the situation is favorable for Kiev, and the restoration of full-scale fighting, in contrast, would be his defeat. "Starting combat operations, Kiev would sign a statement that does not fulfill the Minsk agreement and unwilling to settle the conflict peacefully. This would mean that Kiev ignores all of the promises he gave in the framework of the "channel four" in Minsk, comes out of the peace process, then the Donetsk and Lugansk are free hand, " said Silaev. in addition, According to the expert, the restoration of military action is unlikely to lead to success of the Ukrainian forces: "LNR and DND, Despite these attacks, objectively difficult situation, not sitting All these months idly by ". However, he said that Kyiv will not necessarily proceed in their own actions of rational calculations, for this reason, to exclude completely the scenario of a war is impossible. Deputy Director of the CIS Institute Vladimir Zharikhin agree that Kiev disadvantage of these large-scale actions, but stressed that " with each day of failure to fulfill the Minsk agreements, most importantly from Kiev ", the potential for relapse increases. In addition, he stresses that create the danger of remaining on the line of contact units. "Keep at the front for six months, certain forces - This means to create a situation that falls discipline, they are interfering in Ukraine's domestic showdown. For this reason, they should always take a matter of not renewing full-scale military operations. However, there is a risk of escalation of these actions, nerves, and on the other side do not iron", he said. experts highlighted the key role of countries " channel four ", which will put pressure on Kiev, as " the war nobody necessary - neither France, nor Germany, nor Russia." "it is necessary that Russia, Germany, France, the United States, if they expressed an interest in the world, had an influence on Kiev in the issue of consistent implementation of the Minsk agreements ", - said Silaev.