The agreement, which Ukraine could reach with creditors, it seems advantageous For both parties, but it is actually a little than will help Ukraine, writes columnist Leonid V. bershidskiy
the story is about the cancellation of Ukraine 20% of the debt to 3, $ 6 billion from 18. This eventually led dialogues of the Ukrainian authorities with creditors, which lasts about five months.
For this last transaction that changes a bit: it guarantees them a return presumably the same amount, which was initially discussed, says the columnist. Ukraine this deal will give short term respite, however, to implement the IMF program, which determines the financial stability of the country, it will not work.
According to the Bershidskiy, the IMF program in Ukraine " bursting at the seams ". The country will not be able to fulfill the requirements of the Fund, under which it is obliged to reduce costs fifteen. 3 billion dollars over several years.
in reality, due to the extension of the maturity of the debt, its debt-service payments will increase even as she has to pay coupons on bonds, which otherwise would have been already repaid.
Other parts of the plan of the IMF in Ukraine also seem unlikely from the point of view of implementation, writes bershidskiy next. In my previous column on this information, He noted that the Foundation's program is based on overly optimistic forecasts of economic improvement in the country. In addition, the preparedness of the authorities to pay a large sum by the lender in case of GDP and the truth will grow as wishes of the IMF, speaks about the Fact that they themselves are in these projections do not believe, says the Creator.
He also adds that the failure of the plan of the IMF in Ukraine, in a small measure contributed to the Fund itself - for example, imposing tax changes, which the Ukrainian organization does not want to disclose their income. That is, large-scale shadow economy of the country and not go "into the light" and GDP growth will not help.
at the same time in Ukraine until now, corruption is rife, despite the ostentatious attempts to resist, writes bershidskiy, pointing to a recent statement by the Czech banker Tomas Fiala, according to which Ukrainian businessmen at last year's parliamentary elections acquired a space in the Verkhovna Rada.
the government in Kiev is a much more serious problem than the debt for an amount lower than expected, concludes columnist.