After the presidential elections, the Belarusian leadership will continue to develop cooperation both with the West And with Russia, interviewed Last news professionals.
on last Sunday the election of the acting head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko took over with a record of 83, 5%, the second place was taken by the candidate "against all" 6, 4%. The CEC of Belarus And the CIS observers revealed That serious violations of the election was not.
Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian studies And Belorussii MSU Bogdan Bezpalko regards the position of the West on the issue of the re-election of Lukashenko as President careful.
"And in truth a number of positive signals on Lukashenko was sent, including the cancellation or possible cancellation penalties. Currently we will be watching this dialogue of signs, symbols or direct rhetoric And actions, " He said.
As far as the protest movements in Belarus against those who disagree with the election results, Bespalko said That the radical Belarusian opposing political force " has long occupied a marginal niche And has no impact on the processes ".
"Her protests are most likely associated with the development of a specific payment And demonstrate That in Belarus There are citizens unhappy with Lukashenka's regime. This is done in order to show on TV in the form of pictures And if necessary again to expand the campaign to discredit Lukashenko, as a person who is the last dictator of Europe. But radical opposing political force can not lead to any change within the country ", - said the expert.
according to his statement, " the true Belarusian nationalists are a number of bureaucrats, the employees of spheres of education, mass media, which do not make radical slogans."" They advocate a soft, gradual integration to the West, while receiving the maximum number of economic preferences from Russia. These nationalists are far more dangerous, But They do not run through the area with flags And don't make radical slogans, " - said the expert.
Assistant Professor of political theory at MGIMO (U) Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Kirill Koktysh believes Lukashenko's victory was not a surprise For the West." It was predictable ", - noted the expert.
"The problem here is not That Lukashenko, an authoritarian leader, and That the opposing political force in Belarus was destroyed in practice, contradictory policy of Europe And the events in Ukraine ", - said Koktysh.
according to his statement, Now prerequisites For the destabilization of the political situation in Belarus is not, however, the likelihood of protests always remains." The protest movement may be always ", - the expert believes.
"It is unlikely (Now) There is immediate Danger, But dropping with a score of danger or destabilization attempts of destabilization, itself, is not necessary ", - noted the expert.
review of Bogdan Bezpalko, After the elections Belarus will continue to increase interaction with Russia." For her the market of the Russian Federation sales remains the main, And interaction with Russia still provides it with political And economic sovereignty. For this reason, at the moment Belarus Will squeeze the most out of this integration, But gradually move to the West ", - said the expert.
"Without the Maidan, Without radical upheaval, But for several years this process may turn It into the country, which would become Ukraine in 2013-2014 partner of Europe, working with industry, with investments focused on the reformation of the industry ", - said the Deputy Director of the Ukrainian studies Center And the MSU Belorussii.
Kirill Koktysh has shown That the Russian capital And Minsk Have a great space For interaction of the background current relative to the RF of Western sanctions." Belarus has until now not included in Russia's import substitution program. There is a huge resource that the European Union, for example, evaluated 100 billion dollars ", - said the expert.
"He remains unclaimed in Belarus, idle power, which She would have been happy to apply," said Koktysh.
reviews for the expert, the Belarusian government Now not stands at the crossroads between the West And Russia." All of these issues are not geopolitical orientation. The issues of cooperation ", - noted the expert.
Bogdan Bezpalko also emphasized That the Belarusian elections, Lukashenko expressed unfriendly to Russia, This applies, as well as among them, And the refusal to host Russian military base within Belarus.
review Bezpalko, the Belarusian side will try to "roll up" the issue." most likely, this question will try somehow to remove from the agenda, swing it, That us air base is not necessary, But we need equipment, aircrafts, let's cooperate, But in a different format. And, most likely, the airbase And the truth will not be placed, on the extremely least, in the near future, " He said.
at the same time Kirill Koktysh believes That the issue of placement of the base has the ability to be sorted out, but before that the parties shall settle the details of the contract." Will be bargaining. It is clear That to be considered the question about under what conditions, for what money And in what way It Will be built ", - says the expert.
"The structure of bargaining is also understandable since the income of Belarus decreased % 30 amid falling oil prices And the ruble. These things have to be somehow compensated, " said Koktysh.