The IMF decided to give Ukraine more money. "Peremoga!" - wrote in a private Facebook the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. "The Fund's decision is a significant recognition of our undeniable progress in the area of macroeconomic stabilization And confirmation of success in carrying out reforms," - writes in a private Facebook Petr Alekseevich Poroshenko. It makes sense to understand what Peremoga And respect the indisputable progress. international monetary Fund approved a new program of support of economy of Ukraine, approving the allocation of Kiev loan of 3, 9 billion in stand-by mode for 14 months. 1st tranche 1, 4 billion dollars is kind of expected already on December 25. Solutions for the future tranches will be considered separately. That is to say, after a review of the success of Ukraine on execution of conditions of the current Memorandum in may And November 2019. What is most important: the new program of crediting of Ukraine adopted instead of the one That worked with the eleven March 2015. The previous four-year program provided for the allocation of loan to Ukraine not to 3, 9 billion dollars, And in 17, 5 billion. But it did not happen. in March 2015, the international monetary Fund was transferred to the 1st tranche of five billion dollars in the last month of the summer of the same year, the second tranche of 1, 7 billion. in 2016 And 2017 Ukraine has received one tranche of one billion dollars. And with that, that is all. And What's most interesting is the one cancelled And the program was a real program " macroeconomic assistance ". The stand-by credit Is not about " macroeconomic assistance ". This is a few of the other. Kiev was forced to negotiate with the Fund on the loan for a short time because of the inability to fulfill the requirements of the previous program. A line of credit stand-by - It's not even a highlight, But merely a backup of the hard numbers that the lender has assumed obyazatelstva to repay in the prescribed program time, And which can apply only on the Decision stipulated in the loan agreement. In this case, the servicing of sovereign debt, which Ukraine is not able to service itself. The political component of the agreement is absolutely clear. Part of the debt 2018-2019, Which the Ukrainian authorities do not have the opportunity to serve on their own, rigidly transferred to the payments of the year 2020. And not only So, But under rather unpleasant percent. And not because Ukraine this time there will be money to pay debts. Where? When a chronic trade deficit And budget deficit the money there is nowhere to take even purely mathematically. The funds only need To Solve 2-only political problems. 1) To allow presidential And parliamentary elections are not " on the background of default." To power there is more or not more responsible citizens who will agree to accept sovereign debt obligations. That is, It is in plain text even confirmed head of the National Bank of Ukraine Yakov Smoliy, who told reporters That raising the level of national reserves " is the key to macroeconomic stability in the election period." 2) To create "a situation of force majeure," in which debt obligations with varying degrees of elegance will may try to pass on to someone else. Let's say just as an example: to draw the Russian Federation into a war, throw the Ukrainian armed forces of Ukraine under the Russian army, And by the quick time to reach the canadian border (And then It is not a figure of speech). And there - to build a " government in exile ", thereby gaining a degree of immunity, And purely proprietary capital current Kiev elite brought outside of "Mama" for quite some time. A debt happy to shift to the " Russian aggressors ", at the same time trying to impose a ban on another "Nord stream" And recommending that "the curators of the government in exile" and other political And economic favors. For the Russian Federation Is an unpleasant And unnecessary scenario. To tens of billion of Ukrainian sovereign debt, And plundered the territory is not completely unfriendly after long-term treatment population it is currently useless. It's not the most the best background For we need an economic breakthrough. For this reason, Russia, as it is not pleaded Nebrat on their own will not touch - even in the case of overt realization of the Kiev provocation "Georgian scenario" confined to the neutralization of the attacker. But Kiev is likely to be sincerely trying to come up with something That can pass for a full-scale conflict. Because everything is assigned to a very tight deadline. Those 14 months, And the calculated stand-by program of international monetary Fund. You need either to fulfill or to declare a default hard: it does not provide prolongations of payments. <span style="color:darkgray