The Bloomberg news Agency, Ukraine recorded one of the ten most miserable economies in the world, But to finish her run the risk of Russia's actions. In response to the punishment of Kiev, Moscow imposed a Ban on the Export of oil and oil products, which is able to cause the final big jam. On the contrary the sudden got a bonus Belarus. Analysts believe that now Minsk will deploy schemes of re-export of oil to the neighboring country at full capacity. Will Ukraine survive without Russian oil and what's the benefit of Belarusians in the material of the Fins news .
concerning restrictive measures concerning Ukraine Dmitry Medvedev announced on 18 April. Oil exports are Now banned, And to supply coal, diesel fuel, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) is possible only under special permissions of Ministry of economic development.
by results of examination of the Ministry of economic development, these measures will affect trade in over four billion dollars Is about 30% of last year volume of mutual trade. Thus Moscow has responded to the expansion of the list of Russian items prohibited To import to Ukraine.
The prohibition extends to products of mechanical engineering, Metalworking, light industry. As Medvedev said, last year It was the delivery for 250 million dollars.
experts point: crude oil For the economy of Ukraine is not critical. In General, raw Kyiv, in practice, not buys, because it has nowhere to go: the vast majority of the refining capacity of the country destroyed.
More serious ban on the Export of motor gasoline - fuel and diesel fuel. What oil is the main demand from Ukraine, And key suppliers of these products - the Russian and Belarusian organizations.
Only for the first 7 months of the last year imported 2, 3 million tons of oil products From Russia for the sum more than 900 million dollars. The real need of the Republic in petroleum products is much lower. For comparison, 5 years ago the import did not exceed 90 thousand tons.
To deal with re-exports, since November, Russia has restricted the export to Belarus fuel diesel gasoline and fuel oil before the end of this year.
As explained in the Ministry of energy, duty-free Exports of oil products in Belarus is inadvisable for the Republic completely provides itself through the processing of Russian oil. But the excess Minsk to anything: ally supplies to neighbouring Ukraine, earning billions of dollars.
However, the productivity of such measures, Analysts do not believe." From conventional 100 tons per day, if Belarus itself consumes ten tons, the other 90 you can safely resell. And taking into account the summer season and decreased consumption of petroleum products, released significant amount, " - emphasizes the independent economic expert Anton Shabanov.
experts indicate that Moscow de facto opened Minsk the ability to deploy schema re-export.
"of course, the expansion of the grey imports will be unofficially supported by the Belarusian authorities, because Minsk and in truth angry with the completion of the tax maneuver, which is currently being carried out in Russia and is associated with the zero customs duties on oil and oil products," suggests Alexei Gromov, Director on energy, Institute for energy and Finance.
Lukashenko has said the tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry " hand-wringing ". But the zeroing of the customs duties concerning oil products is a key priority For the Russian authorities. This reduces the burden on the budget and gives an opportunity to subsidize their own oil. Another thing is that Belarus is deprived of competitive advantages.
"So, we let the Belarusians for some time due to this ban a little to minimize losses from Russian decisions on zeroing customs duties, at this here window. But This window we can at any time to cover if we don't like it, " concludes Gromov.