New scenario: how will the agreement on gas transit
Today in Berlin will be the last this year, the tripartite dialogues of Ukraine, Russia And the EU on the transit pumping gas. Prior to the completion of the current contract in less than 2 weeks, So That If the parties again fail to reach agreement, since January 1, pumping of gas through Ukraine will cease.
Today in Berlin will be the last this year, the tripartite dialogues of Ukraine, Russia And the EU on the transit pumping gas. Prior to the completion of the current contract in less than 2 weeks, So That If the parties again fail to reach agreement, since January 1, pumping of gas through Ukraine will cease. What is a possible consensus between "Gazprom" And "Naftogaz" - the material of the Fins news .
"The new round of tripartite negotiations on transit pumping gas is scheduled for Thursday, December 19," - said Tuesday in a Twitter Vice-President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic." It's time to send a positive signal to markets And consumers, " the official added.
Optimistic statements from Kiev. On Sunday Vladimir Zelensky in the process of the TV talk show "Right to rule" told That Ukraine And Russia are very close to agreement." a very high percentage That we will sign an agreement on gas transit, he said.- We spoke about It And four presidents of Russia, France And Chancellor of Germany, And tete-A-tete with President of Russia. I see That everything is currently set to sign the agreement."
After the previous meeting, held on 28 October, the parties And the truth has made great progress in dealing with controversial issues. For example, in terms of volume.
Ukraine And the EU insisted on pumping More than 60 billion cubic meters of gas per year." Gazprom " has specified That all depends on economic conditions. According to experts, After an exit of "North stream - 2" And "Turkish stream" at full capacity the volume of Ukrainian transit for Russian Federation is 30-40 billion cubic meters.
the result tentatively agreed on a floating circuit with gradual volume reduction: in 1st year - 50 billion, In the second 40, the third And forth - 30.
This opened the route to a compromise on terms: in this arrangement, Gazprom is not insisting on signing a one - or two-year contract. Ukraine, for its part, no longer requires a ten-year contract.
"I Until not Want to give all the details, But in truth it is not reported one-year contract, removed It from the discussion ", - said Vladimir Zelensky at a press conference following the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Paris. And added, Because It is not ten years, as before insisted, Kiev, And " somewhere in between ".
apparently, in Kiev And Moscow there is an understanding That the term of the contract is obliged to cover the electoral cycle in Ukraine. It is convenient And Zelensky, And the Kremlin: in this case, the prospects for renewal of transit; hence, a normal relationship with Russia - will be an important topic in the elections next Ukrainian President. For this reason, the most realistic currently looks like a five-year contract.
Another fundamental question is on the tariffs for pumping - decided because of the intervention of the European Union. In November, Naftogaz announced fresh rates - from 2 56 To 3, 21 dollars per thousand cubic meters per 100 kilometers, depending on volume. This meant That at lower volume flow of gas from Russia will be uncompetitive on the European market.
It is clear That "Gazprom" It is decisively rejected." rules is possible, the Ukrainian transit, economically unsustainable. As long as. But I dream, Because It is initial position - will work as a position to negotiate, " - said Vladimir Putin in early December.
Opposed And Brussels - in the end It's European customers will have to pay all additional costs. For this reason, according to unconfirmed reports, the working group of the EU gave advice to Naftogaz to consolidate transit rate at 2, 5 dollars per thousand cubic meters on 100 kilometers. It is, in practice, the current prices are: in 2019, the rate was 2, 61 dollar.
in response, Moscow seems to refuse the requirement to consider the conclusion of a transit contract in the package with the settlement of litigation. And rightly so: in the spring there important decisions of international courts - and in two appeals of "Gazprom" Against the verdict of the Stockholm arbitration, "the debt of Yanukovych," claim of default "Naftogaz" of the decision of arbitration on the recovery of purchases of Russian fuel.
finally opens vast opportunities for offsets obligations recognized by the courts, So it is logical to return to this issue in a few months.
There has been a progress in the question of purchases of gas by Ukraine from Russia for its own needs. At the end of November, the head of the Ministry of energy of Russia Alexander Novak said That the story is on direct supply of fifteen billion cubic meters per year." This is presumably the volumes that We discussed During the last tripartite consultations ", - noticed the head of the Ministry of energy.
Finally about the restoration of supply was agreed at a meeting in Paris. The cost will be determined by the formula " the European market minus 25 % ".
for reviews of Ukrainian experts, only that the parties reached due to the fact That the negotiations in fact has suspended the head of the Board "Naftogaz" Andrew Kobolyev.
In truth, the main decisions were taken at the end of the meeting between Vladimir Putin And Vladimir Zelensky in Paris, And also at the bilateral meeting of the commissioners of "Naftogaz" And "Gazprom" on 13 December in Vienna, which KOBOLEV was not invited.
Ukrainian media openly called the head of "Naftogaz" the main saboteur of negotiations on the transit pumping, however, disagree on his motives. Some believe That COBOL executes the orders of the us " hawks ", such as billionaire George Soros.
"It is no coincidence that the negotiations in Paris were not KOBOLEV, And Executive Director Yuriy Vitrenko, - says the expert of the energy market And the head of the tenants Union of Ukraine Alexander Skubchenko.- in the "Naftogaz" has long been internal divisions: COBOL is on the side of George Soros And the United States, And Vitrenko - more on the side Zelensky ".
Other analysts believe That Andrey Kobelev's just a private person has expressed an interest in proceeding with the procurement of natural gas to Ukraine in reverse. On Tuesday the people's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Andriy Derkach said That the country for 5 years overpaid one and a half billion dollars for gas supplies in the reverse system from Europe.
according to his statement, "Naftogaz" declare " European gas ", But in reality, buy the same Russian through European And Ukrainian intermediaries. These brokers earn huge amount of money, And apparently not without participation of head of " Naftogaz ".
"average margin per thousand cubic meters is $ 40-50, And Is currently on the low gas prices. And, for example, in the past year, reaching 90-100 dollars per thousand cubic meters - estimated Alexander Skubchenko.- Given That Ukraine consumes about 12 billion cubic meters of gas, " fat "is 480 million dollars, or about 1, 3 million for every day of reverse" European gas ". And it is unlikely this money someone just refuse."
So Andriy KOBOLEV care not that there is a transit agreement, And the restoration of Ukraine's gas purchases from Russia "in one package" with the transit. After all, the beneficiaries of the reverse will be deprived of parish funds, which the head of "Naftogaz" is struggling to defend himself.
for example, say Ukrainian sources, the upcoming trilateral talks, he wants to abolish the "floating amounts" of transit And the establishment of a permanent strap 60 billion cubic meters per year. In addition, Korolev insists on an additional allowance for direct gas supply for the needs of Ukraine And it is able to significantly harm the negotiation process.
"If the agreement on the transit pumping will be signing the New independent operator -" gas pipelines of Ukraine ", here's a contract for direct supply Is the prerogative of " Naftogaz ", - says head of special projects of STC "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtsev.
Andriy KOBOLEV is determined to the failure of the current trilateral meeting, And has announced the following dialogues." If the contract will not be signed at present, in April-may We will return to this discussion with Russian And European sides, " he said Wednesday.
<span style="color:darkgray