A few days are required to be signed final binding consensus on transit pumping gas from Russia via Ukraine. recall that last week a trilateral dialogue on transit Ukraine resulted in the signing of the preliminary contract. Main points: "Gazprom" pay " old " debt of almost $ 3 billion (which by the Way, in 2018, he created the reserves out of profits) And gives guarantees pumping 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 And 40 billion in the next four years. Funny "dialectic" of the American struggle with the "Northern stream - 2" has been discussed many times. Briefly the essence of what is happening is the future: US confrontation with the " Northern stream - 2 ", to get an additional niche for its LNG. Play a role not only volumes But also Prices - lack of gas transmission capacity would lead to the fact that Prices of gas And LNG in the EU has increased. It is important for us LNG supplies, which are currently being implemented at the limit of profitability. The official interpretation of the following: the fight against "SP-2" is being waged for the preservation of the Ukrainian transit. But as soon As "SP-2" is built, States will have to struggle with the Ukrainian corridor, otherwise gas transmission capacities (Ukraine plus fresh gas) will be so much space for us LNG will not remain. Interesting, But the first signs of this development we are seeing now. As soon as it was announced the signing even the preliminary agreements, already low at present, spot Prices for gas in the European Union dropped another few %. The reasons are clear. Europe to overflowing filled its reservoirs with gas, based on the interruption of transit. If interruptions will not, then gas is too much. superimposed on all This excess LNG to the global market, which is what it is, And puts pressure on gas Prices worldwide. Of course, winter is winter, the heating season itself supports Prices, But in the summer such support will not. And unused over the winter excess in the vaults will not give the opportunity in the summer to link the supply of gas injection for the next heating season. As a result, Prices are falling even lower ($150 per thousand cubic meters And even less). of course, you have to understand that any price war is a negative for all involved (except, of course, buyers of goods). Will decrease, And profits from Russian exports. However, in the circumstances, "Gazprom" showed interest to maximize deliveries to the European Union, it makes no sense to limit them. The fact that a fresh consensus on the Ukrainian transit will be signed on the terms "take-or-pay" (by the Way, that Is what Gazprom pays the penalty for it, not all the declared volumes: because of the wording in the old contract was vague, But the Tribunal decided So). And That means, time for transit is paid for, "Gazprom" showed interest to export gas, even at low prices: So it is at least a little work, And on the other, are only the losses due to idle, But paid for the transit corridor. Incidentally, in the U.S. the story is similar: there is already built LNG plants, And This leads to the fact that the export of liquefied natural gas occurs even At prices below full cost. But the US higher cost of the gas itself, And in Russia the Basic costs are for transportation, which, again, in the current circumstances is already somehow paid for. The only that in case of signing a new contract with Ukraine, increases the probability of reduction to the reduction of Russian gas exports to the European Union - the situation with Poland. Remember: in may, ending a transit Treaty with this country (the gas pipeline " Yamal - Europe ", the capacity of 33 billion cubic meters). And an additional amount of pumping in the Ukrainian direction have the ability to be used for bargaining with Warsaw on a new contract. In this case, the transit through Poland has the ability to be paused. in this context, let me quote our material a month ago: "If we see large amounts of Ukrainian transit in the new short - or medium-term contract, It should not be taken sverkhkriticheskom. Maybe these additional volumes will need in the near future when the contract ends at the Polish transit ". however, 65 billion cubic meters, which is scheduled for 2020, correspond to the traditional annual volume of total transit through Ukraine, excluding the South (which is thrown to the "Turkish stream" ). Accordingly, at the beginning of the year we will see traditional exports, which have the ability to grow as the completion of the "Nord stream - 2" And increasing transit capacity. Optimal development for the United States in this case would be to keep everyone in suspense And to avoid signing the contract "Gazprom" And " Naftogaz ": in this case, the "Nord stream - 2" yet, the Ukrainian transit is already there. Prices are rising, the supply in the European Union is limited to: the ideal situation is to increase LNG imports. in fact, "Gazprom" would be the equivalent of "OPEC necessarily" in the gas sector, when forced to would limit supply And support Prices by lowering its own revenues. But the consensus (still preliminary) with the "Naftogaz" has not allowed to realize this scheme. If the signing of the final agreements is suddenly disrupted, the United States here are the main beneficiaries. Well, If "Gazprom" And the truth will agree with Ukraine (most of expected development of events), the "in the red" will be Poland (now the Russian side can not rush into new transit agreement) And the US (gas Prices in the EU fall, the attractiveness of LNG exports will be reduced). And the last one. A further drop in prices can be, And will not lead to the termination of the current production of liquefied natural gas in the United States (again, because of capital spending on plants already incurred), But the adoption of investiciniu on the construction of new LNG plants - not only in the US But all over the world - in such conditions will slow down. In the long run It will help to redress the current imbalances of supply And demand And a rise in global gas prices. <span style="color:darkgray