Ukraine is preparing To wrap-up the official results of the past year in the economy, And there emerges a very unusual phenomenon. Will fix the maximum beyond 2011 real GDP Growth - at 3, 5-3, 6 percent in one year. The industrial production index will show a Drop of more than 1, 5 percent With 2018, Although according to the results of January - may of 2019, was an Increase of almost one percent over the same period of last year. Not to say that Such dissonance in the development of the economy And its backbone - the industry - was literally really unusual. Especially in the developed world periodically observed. For example, the results 2019 the index of industrial production of Germany will be reduced in comparison With the previous year by a very significant 3, 5-4 per cent. But the real GDP will grow by 0, 6-0, 8 percent. Something similar was observed in 2015-2016 in the United States. Really it turns out that Ukraine has happened for a few years to build a post-industrial economy, focusing on the flagships of global economy? Upon closer inspection - presumably thus the same as some time ago Afghanistan was to build socialism, going from feudalism, bypassing the stage of capitalism. For 2019, the Ukrainian economy actively accumulating imbalances that will undoubtedly lead To crisis. Because of the intent to open the land market, besides, nevertheless, in terms of Western " partners ", the onset of this drop can be delayed just due to the fact that the country come to the money for her purchase. But If suddenly there was a crisis in the world economy, the economy of Ukraine faces a serious collapse. And even here the land is unlikely to help. in developed economies the chart "GDP Growth If the fall in industrial production" is fairly clear. The fall in industry kompensiruet stable consumption growth, which can even occur by itself in connection With the near-zero interest rates on loans. If the Course doesn't add up, authorities have used a variety of methods of stimulation, from the reduction in key interest rates of Central banks (including below zero) and compensation to consumers When purchasing consumer durables And so on. But how long this scheme is Not valid: either the industry could be transferred to the area increase, or a crisis occurs. in Ukraine, this scheme was implemented literally different. in fact, in 2019 was forecasted moderate Growth in the industry - on the background of the collapse of the previous years And a slight stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country was quite logical to wait at least the recovery increase. When it begins to use the part before stopped capacity. that is, so initially the Case was. in January-February, however, the increase in industry was Not, there was even some decline To the same months of 2018. Influenced by the fact that in an effort to execute the budget in 2018, the government Groisman was "clamped" to exporters the VAT refund, depriving them thereby of working capital, meaning, And worsening financial position. But in March, the Growth amounted to 2, 1 per cent, 5 in April, 2 percent in may 1.6 per cent. For five months I got almost to the percentage increase relative To January - may 2018. And here reasons are also understandable. By February, the state had paid before the accumulated debt of reparation. There was a positive dynamics of prices on the market of ferrous metals. Plus, during election campaign started handing out social bribe, besides Not only in the form of payments, thousands of other loyal To Poroshenko voters (about his program "Grid" has a lot of information in the Network), But hastily carrying out public procurement: from the restoration of roads And social infrastructure to procurement of furniture And equipment for schools, kindergartens And hospitals And so on. of course, we are Not talking about funding large-scale projects, But given the fact that 5 years the state does almost Not financed the real economy (excluding the military industrial complex, where for the most part was " cut " ), And the magnitude of the current Ukrainian industry for the positive dynamics was enough And electoral injections. But then we run into the question about where the money for these injections was taken. And taking they loaned in the market of bonds of internal state loan (government bonds). Besides borrowing carried out by the frantic pace And under huge percent. In the first half in the domestic market the Ministry of Finance took 186 billion hryvnia in annual plan 202 billion. Interest rates rose to 20% per annum. This led To the fact that the Ukrainian financial market pushed speculative foreign capital in fairly decent for Ukraine volumes. By the beginning of the second half of the year went to two billion dollars By the end - almost 5. And This, for its part, has led To the growth of the hryvnia, which in January 2019 was at 27, 9 per dollar, And in June for 26, 5. By December, amid continuing input of capital, which is fueled Not only by a fabulous conditions on the lending market, But also promises Zelensky to open the land market, the dollar fell to 23, 6 hryvnia. And This strengthening was a turning point for the Ukrainian industry. The acceleration of appreciation has accelerated And the Fall in the industry. If in June-September, the Fall was 0, 2-2, 3 percent in October to five in November 7, 5 percent. And will Not be less at the end of December, the calculations on which yet. The fact that Ukrainian producers, on the one hand, came under pressure from imports, which Due appreciation has fallen From January to December for more than fifteen %! And It is With the greatest openness of the Ukrainian economy. Most of the economy of the EU. As a result, the stores even the Polish milk was to oust the Ukrainian. With the opposite hand, the Ukrainian exporters began to UAH fifteen % less revenue. Despite the fact that costs in UAH only increased (in particular, in connection With the increase in the minimum wage, the number of tariffs And so on). According to the Ukrainian state statistics service, producer prices in the domestic market in the early winter of 2019 compared With December 2018 fell 5 8 percent (due to the pressure of imports), And external on 14, 4% (due to the strengthening of the hryvnia). It got to the point that at the beginning of winter, the head of the Ministry of economy Milovanov, before agreeing With the fact that he is a moron, said about the perception of problems And even the creation of a "headquarters" which is required to prevent further decline in the industry. Although the development of the "staff" of " sorozat ", which literally are working on other tasks, seems anecdotal. as a result, the GDP Growth in Ukraine resembles the Growth of average wages it is that over the past period of time to a greater extent is formed by ppm or measured in hundreds of thousand of salaries of bureaucrats, senior And middle managers, And managers of state monopolies. GDP growth in 2019 in Ukraine was provided by growth of consumption by bringing in expensive external resources. Such Growth is absolutely unhealthy And is more reminiscent of the arrogant colonial plunder. I should add that for provided so the Growth of Ukraine now And will additionally pay to Western creditors in terms of GDP-the warrants issued during the "successful" restructuring of public debt. <span style="color:darkgray