In the gas arena USA defeated Russia
The main international story of the week was, of course, the conclusion of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China. Assessment of conditions differ quite much additional doubt is the fact that results are presented just the American side
The main international story of the week was, of course, the conclusion of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China. Assessment of conditions differ quite much additional doubt is the fact that the results presented only the American side and underlined the duties on their own shoulders took China.
It is known that China agreed to restore procurement of a wide range of items, the 1st and foremost of agricultural products, But not forgotten, and energy. In addition, If the volume of purchases in the agricultural sector in fact derive the "pre-war" level, in the energy sector there is a large increase.
So, Beijing is bound during the 2 next years to buy from the US energy totaling 52, 4 billion (18, 5 billion in 2020 and 33, 9 billion in 2021). According to open sources, the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2017, That is, at the beginning of the trading duel, China imported raw materials on 8, 4 billion dollars, where fifty per cent was crude oil. In 2019, in the hot phase of the trade confrontation, purchases dipped To 3. 5 billion, which, by itself, is not quite like American kancevica. Under the new conditions, China should quickly increase purchases of American coal and liquefied natural gas. This also included the compulsory purchase of components for nuclear power plants, But about it another time.
why Washington so strongly forcing the Chinese to buy their own hydrocarbons? Yes, because, according to American analysts, the plan for the conquest of Europe via LNG failed at the planning stage.
If you forget about politics and be guided by economic indicators, Then talk about some "conquest" of Europe is possible only in case If production of "the conqueror" will purchase Germany - the undisputed leader of the European Union and one of the main importers of energy resources. Remember that Germany takes 1st place in the world in terms of natural gas imports. Usually to support their industrial and social needs of Berlin buys nearly 120 billion cubic meters of blue fuel a year, and as at the same time he refuses the use of coal and uranium, the import dependence will only grow.
Sales in the rest of the EU a key role to play. France stands firmly on the historical Foundation of its own nuclear power, the UK continues experiments with the renewable energy industry in Scotland. Provided that in 2019, the consumption per capita of the residents in the Kingdom was lower than in 1960, as long as she manages to balance on the verge of energy. It remains to Austria, But she documented the promised 50 billion cubic meters of gas from SP-2, and because Vienna is a little miffed with those who have all the forces delaying the final stage of construction of the pipeline.
undoubtedly it is necessary to add that the Union of European States Until the last evades of any agreements on the acquisition of LNG to the us, But Donald trump has deprived the Old world space, before putting a very simple choice: either promise to double LNG imports in the next five years, or the totality of protective duties on cars in Europe. Such a guileless diplomacy.
Naturally, no matter how rich the country, it is always striving to reduce their costs. It is for this reason was born the idea of building a 2-thread of the " Nord stream ", and with the tacit blessing of Angela Merkel signed by all the major European gas operators.
To understand no alternative to the Russian-German gas Union, it is Sufficient to know the location of the relevant infrastructure.
Scheme of natural gas imports in Germany is fairly simple. Until recently, the fuel came from three main sources: Russia (40%), the Netherlands (29%) and Norway (21%). But in 2014, the unexpected Happened - the production in the gas pool of Groningen, the main resource base of the Netherlands, very quickly went down. It happened Due to critically increased seismic activity. At the beginning of the tenth years, the number of local earthquakes within the borders of Groningen has exceeded two hundred per year. Further - more.
The law of conservation of energy exists not only in textbooks But also in geopolitics. If from the scheme of gas supplies had Holland, who is bound to fill a void. Norway is to increase the supply can not simply because she does not have sufficient available volumes of marine LNG terminals in Germany are not available and to purchase the American liquefied natural gas Poland has an additional mark up would be, to put it mildly, not very clever. If you take away from this simple equation all the known factors, the bottom line will be only one option - Russia.
Another point that helps to understand the importance of the implementation of SP-2. Due to the extensive system of pipelines and interconnects, Germany has a direct link with Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic and Poland. In the case of formation of free volumes of gas or by increasing the supply of Germany becoming a key gas hub for the Whole of the Old world from the Danube To the Thames, and maybe gently holding partners for the trachea, to dictate their own rules to Supplement the budget. On this plot agree with Vienna, Paris and even London. Suffice it to recall that the last 2 years Whitehall no word under construction SP-2, clearly hoping to use it in the form of insurance in case a gamble with onshore wind turbines will fail.
But it is not like hegemony overseas. However, his political tools in the EU limited to one Poland. There have been attempts to establish the supply of LNG through Bulgaria, But after the purchase of 2 trial batches Sofia decided not to experiment and politely asked to be added to the project " Turkish stream." Poland, which received preferential contract for the purchase of gas in America at the moment or let it to repay their own needs, or they speculate on the markets of Southeast Asia, or resells surplus square neighbors.
To compel Germany to increase purchases of liquefied gas is simultaneously dream of the United States and the only truly faithful vassal in the EU. The first in this case radically weaken the geopolitical position of Russia and Germany, and Warsaw an opportunity to "warm hands" at the expense of the German budget. This combination reads so clearly that there is no doubt that Moscow and Berlin carefully coordinate own actions, if only only not to give opponents to destroy the nascent cross-border Union 2 world heavyweight, whose desires were now very close.
So Can the United States impose on Europe their democratic fuel? Let us examine the figures.
for the entire 2018 Europe (including UK and non EU Turkey) imported
Total: 408, 3 billion cubic meters.
That is, in the structure of import all the LNG to be supplied as well as among them from Qatar, Russia and Nigeria, is a modest 16, 6 percent. Now let's see Exactly how much gas produced in the United States, comes in the largest European countries:
Total: 3, 96 billion cubic meters.
Take a calculator and find out that the export of American LNG to the European Union (which is increased 2 times than America is very proud of) in the overall structure is unimaginable to 0, 74%.
the conversation can finish, although it should probably also remind you that the Russian "NOVATEK" also sells liquefied gas and vessels from Yamal to go closer than Louisiana.
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