On Armenia-Azerbaijan border once again go shooting for the past 30 years, this news had the order a bit to our citizens. However, the first time artillery fire began on the border of 2 republics when It was not a state border. When We lived in the same state, And it was the first flames of war, full flared at the time of the destruction of the USSR. At present, Armenians And Azerbaijanis shot at each other not in Nagorno-Karabakh, the dispute which was the cause of their conflict, and far away in the Northern part of it - But the conflict continues to have a direct relationship To Russia And our national interests. Is there a risk of a major war in the Caucasus? And What should Russia do? At least to remember the fact That the Karabakh issue became the 1st severe blow to the unity of the Soviet Union - actually it was in February of 1988 does the process of collapse of our state. At this point, already more than one month in Karabakh was restless, and commenced the ethnic conflict And the Nagorno - Karabakh Autonomous region appealed To the Union leadership To Gorbachev with a request to give autonomy from the Azerbaijani SSR to the Armenian. Precedents of transfer of autonomy from one Republic to another in the USSR was not long ago, especially under the pressure from below, And the center tried to settle - But acted clumsily, on the ground was not seen to be serious about the capital of Russia, and the same Armenians hoped to take advantage of the restructuring And to recover What they considered " historical justice ", in fact to reunite the Armenian land And Armenians of Karabakh And Armenia into one country. Passions ran high, soon the first blood was shed, the Azerbaijanis to flee from Armenia And Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenians from Azerbaijan. In the end - If earlier Azerbaijan the Armenians lived, but now they are there almost no. If Karabakh were a lot of Azerbaijanis - they were gone. Armenia won the war of the early 90s - separating from Azerbaijan, not only the bulk of Karabakh But also several regions located Between itself And that Is Armenia (Without this provide the security of Karabakh would be impossible). Formally Karabakh is not a part of Armenia, But it is not recognized as an independent country (Republic of Artsakh). Azerbaijan, of course, did not accept the loss of their land - especially That from the perspective of international law Karabakh And other Azerbaijani territories remain. Azerbaijanis believe That sooner or later will return the lost ground - and the Armenians are sure That you will be able to keep them away. Periodically flare up on the border skirmishes, sometimes they escalate into more serious fighting - the last time this was in 2016, And now We are again witnessing the escalation of the conflict. What to do about Russia? Russia over the years have tried to reconcile the two former Soviet republics - And all to no avail. Because the necessary will To compromise, at least To the first steps on the way To it - which does not want to go the most important of the Armenian side. She's afraid to give Azerbaijan even part of those areas that lie Between Karabakh And Armenia - fearing That in the future they will become a springboard for attacks on Karabakh. Azerbaijan is convinced That time works for him - a fourfold superiority in population, even more in the GDP, large military budget And even formal, But the support of the world brotherhood: so weak Armenia will not be able forever to keep the occupied territories. In Armenia also understand That the balance of forces is not in its favor - But they have the trump card. Without it, a new war would long ago have become a reality. The trump card - Russia. Armenia hosts a Russian military base, Republic of is included into the Organization of Treaty on collective security, in fact is a military ally of Russia. Meanwhile, it is the opinion of the Armenian side - the desire of Russia in the Caucasus is not a matter to act as a guarantor of Armenia's security. Russia needs a close relationship with both the conflicting parties - Azerbaijan And Armenia can't even think about a military conflict Between them. Because it is a little fact That will be suicidal for both sides so also did not need Russia. No war in the Caucasus does not meet our national interests - both in Baku And in Yerevan understands it very well. Russia is for both countries not only the main ally And partner, She, really, is the guarantor of their existence As such. Get Russian Federation And two republics of tomorrow will converge in a mad scramble, in the battle of mutual destruction. Karabakh has already become the trigger for the death of the Soviet Union - whether or not to allow disputes to eliminate more And two fragments of a great country? But where is the way out of this impasse? The only reasonable way is the gradual reintegration of Armenia And Azerbaijan not only with Russia, But also Among themselves - in fact their convergence via the Eurasian Union. Armenia enters the Eurasian Union, Azerbaijan is still behind - But then the question, of course, not in the economy, and in the future the post-Soviet space As such. During one of the country which sooner or later will become the Eurasian Union, there will be a chance to detect the consensus on the conflict through an exchange of territories, a partial return of immigrants, a common defence policy. Armenians And Azerbaijanis are not doomed to perpetual enmity - despite the mutually shed blood of millions of immigrants, There is a place where they peacefully coexist with each other. Yes, it's not Karabakh, and Russia, within which live the majority of the millions of Armenians And Azerbaijanis, moreover, As Russian citizens And Residents of these republics. Baku And Yerevan have the opportunity, of course, more than a decade waiting for the right moment to start the war Among themselves - But it's a dead end road. As long as There is Russia - a war Between them will not. If not will be Russia - or Russia all of a sudden, it is not clear for what reasons, withdraws from the Caucasus, both people will bitterly regret about it. No external players will not only reconciliation, But a sustainable truce 2 republics - the Transcaucasus for them will always be only a field for play against the neighbouring great powers: Russia, Turkey, Iran. But three of these countries, only Russia can be the guarantor of peace in the region - Turkey too is not indifferent To Azerbaijan. It would be yesterday's statements by Turkish Directors - If That Erdogan was subjected to charge Armenia in the current aggravation, it is not surprising (especially That guilty, most likely, both sides), then the words of the Minister of defence of Turkey Hulusi ACAR extremely inappropriate." We will close with the armed forces of Azerbaijan, we support our brothers in Accordance with the principle of " one nation, two countries ", - said the head of the Ministry, And it is difficult to assess As a peacekeeping position. Despite the proximity of the Turks And the Azerbaijanis, Baku has no need for such demonstrations of solidarity And aid to prevent war in the Caucasus, enough weight And influence of Russia, which is deliberately not going to take sides in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. And thereby prevent him from lighting up. <span style="color:darkgray