The older brother spoke to the younger. Vladimir Putin called Alexander Lukashenko - two days before the presidential elections in Belarus and ten days After the restrictions of freedom in the Republic of 33 Russian citizens suspected of preparing to organize riots in the electoral process. These ten days were some of the most tense in the history of Russian-Belarusian relations - But all the while commenting on the situation, only the head of Belarus, and with each his new criticism of Russia in our country is growing outrage at the " betrayal of Lukashenko." However, Vladimir Putin remained silent - and called only after the fact, How the Russian intelligence services figured in the history with the appearance in Belarus of a group of Russian employees of PMCs.
Details will still emerge - and started checking the Russian Investigative Committee - But the main thing is already Clear: the story is About provocation organized by the security Service of Ukraine. Just in Kiev has invented and organized the operation for the recruitment of Russian Inhabitants As if to work for the protection of objects of "Rosneft" in Venezuela - with the transit through Minsk. And when the group has collected, data On it were transferred to the Belarusian secret services - that's some strange Russian you are going, Not on another they are up to something for the elections. This information is well laid on a tense pre-election situation in the leadership of the Belarusian special services - the more that different of provocation in the election process certainly prepared from the Pro-Western part of the anti-Lukashenka opposition. Why the security service of Ukraine believe Lukashenka? Apparently, he felt that his KGB well checked. And to the question about why Russia stir up trouble in his country, likely said to himself, just As in a recent interview to the Ukrainian journalist: This is Not the leadership of Russia, And someone from middle management (a clear allusion to the former Russian Ambassador in Minsk Babic) nonstop against him plotting something. Not to overthrow him going there - And just to make disturbances in the elections, to weaken its legitimacy. Then, according to Lukashenko, " we cushy Belarus will bring and drop off to the Kremlin tower."
Alas, the Belarusian leader believed in similar games of Russia - and said in recent days a lot of things better just Not to talk. Even blamed the Russian Federation in that it exchanged fraternal relations on a partnership. But in the process held on the last working day of the week conversation with Putin with the Russian side in the message sounded old feature - " discussed topical issues of further development of friendly Russian-Belarusian relations ".
of course, Putin called in order to calm Lukashenka and tell him what was established by the Russian intelligence services. In the statement of the Kremlin press service, It looks like this:
"An exchange of views in connection with recent detention in the Republic of 33 Russian citizens. Expressed confidence that this situation will be resolved in a spirit of mutual understanding, characteristic of the cooperation of the two countries ".
But in Minsk said that " one of the main topics of conversation was the arrest of 33 Russian citizens in Belarus ":
To understand, to establish the true causes and to settle in a spirit of understanding - that is, Not to let muddy provocation to cause a crisis between two countries. To understand the provocation half the battle - it is also necessary to prevent raised her wave turned existing between the 2 countries questions and discussions in unsolvable problems. The most painful of which would be the loss of confidence in Lukashenka in the Russian society - the entire quarter century of its stay in power, Lukashenko enjoyed in Russia a considerable sympathy and support. But its a hint that he may also give the Kiev part of the arrested in Minsk the Russian citizens (former early residents of Ukraine and fought in the Donbass), called in Russia the great indignation. If It were, then the reputation of Lukashenko in Russia would be irreparably damaged. It is clear that Lukashenko was Not going to do that - just tried a very rough play on it, thinking thus to equalize for Russia because he considered it an interference in its internal Affairs.
At present, however, when the history of the provocation SBU begins to unfold, further insenuatsii on the possible issuance of any of the captured Ukraine are obliged to be completely finished. It is in the interests of Russian-Belarusian relations, and Lukashenko himself. The faster will be disassembled and closed the whole story, the better for everyone. In addition to Ukrainian authorities, on which Minsk must be made very serious findings. As provided This story, to deal with the provocateurs is extremely dangerous for the most of Minsk: Kiev had planned to do stuff Russia and to undermine Russian-Belarusian relations, But in fact has caused very serious damage to Lukashenko. Hardly a man will forget such a "gift" SBU - But will pay After the elections.
Which, in spite of the pressure, will end in total peace and quiet - Yes, the opposing political force pobuzit, claim fraud, will try to provoke the Belarusian authorities for harsh measures, cynically hoping for blood. But no matter what the provocation Lukashenko is Not going to be - just the fact that he was such an experienced, and so able to "breed" Ukrainian " brothers ". Blood in Minsk will Not spill, the result of Lukashenko is, of course, below the last election (in 2015 he received 83 percent currently, will be around 70 in the worst case - 60), But more Than necessary for legitimacy.
To challenge her would be all the same who before. The same power that called illegitimate and Vladimir Putin, and the results of the expression of the will amendments to the Constitution. Russia, As drew the attention of Putin, " is interested in conservation in Belarus, a stable political situation and the upcoming presidential elections in a calm atmosphere." And in Belarus reported a telephone conversation 2-presidents says that " Vladimir Putin, for example, explained the importance of further development of friendly Belarusian-Russian relations and the need to resist negative trends and actions of the third forces, Who are able to lead to their deterioration ".
about how dangerous are These "acts of third forces," the most If they are authorities of the countries and public opinion the other, we have all seen in the last days. The main lesson of these events is obliged to become conscious of our immense value our brotherly Union, and the understanding that its protection and strengthening we expected still quite a lot to do.