In Belarus today choose the President. Yesterday the acting head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that the harvest is more important than the election. In Minsk at that time detained participants of unsanctioned actions. The situation in the Republic nervous. Last news remembers How everything was before, And understands what to expect After the counting of votes.
four days of early voting, the turnout exceeded 32%, said the morning of 8 August the Belarusian Central election Commission. Most actively the Gomel region is nearly 43%. In Minsk, about 30.
And the head went to the village to check the progress of agricultural work." To lose a crop for a policy - It will be full of idiocy "- he explained to the head of Minsk region Alexander Turchin, asking Him " Not to pull people to the polls ".
Lukashenko has noticed that in the harvest season rural people are Not up to it." It is here in Minsk some beer and suck on the bench, then excited, ran about, just sat back, drank ", - said the head of the country.
in the capital And in truth, political life abounds. In the evening, the opposition held " a race of solidarity ". Rival Lukashenko, Svetlana Tikhanovski failed to gather supporters in Minsk because the authorities allocated a place for the meeting arranged for the celebration of the Day of the railway troops. Held on 30 July, the joint action of Lukashenko's opponents gathered, by estimates of police, 18 thousand people, according to human rights defenders - 60 thousand..
in previous campaigns also had political intrigue, there were demonstrations of disagreement. In 1994 was considered as a favorite of Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich, the people's Deputy of the Supreme Council of Zenon Pozniak And the former head of the Parliament Stanislav Shushkevich.
But defeated Alexander Lukashenko. In the first round he scored almost 45% of the votes in the 2 m - 60.
The constitutional referendum in 1996, has significantly strengthened the Executive power. Lost And presidential terms: the following elections were held Not in 5 years, And 7 - in 2001. won Again Lukashenko.
in 2006, was the first "square" (the area of Belarus), the mass action. After the polls close on March 16 on October square in Minsk was held a rally. Built a small tent city. Literally the next day he was visited by the ambassadors of Britain, France, Latvia, Lithuania And the Czech Republic. However, on the night of 24 March, the police drove protesters from the square.
A few months later Lukashenko in the usual style to shock the public." The last election We have forged, " admitted the Belarusian leader. And he explained: "President Lukashenko voted 93 to 5 percent. Say It is Not a European figure. We did 86 ".
in 2010 As in 2020, Lukashenko very vocal on the issue of Russia." for last period of time the Russian leadership has wanted to build with Belarus is entirely pragmatic relations. We are ready for it. But this pragmatism must Not destroy everything that has accumulated at the moment ", - said the Belarusian leader.
Then he got about 80% of the opposing political force is again collected of " the square ". A rally was dispersed. In 2015 expression of the will remember the arrest of two hundred Ukrainians." You do Not toss us more terrorists. We are tired at the border to detain them with grenades, bats, handguns and ammunition. Let's live together, " chided Kiev Lukashenka. Shortly After the election, the detainees returned home.
This year, Lukashenko's opponents have joined forces. In July, the opposing political force has created a common headquarters. Svetlana Tikhanovski involved in the election instead of her husband - Sergei Tikhanovski, the CEC refused to register. Maria Kolesnikova is a Commissioner of the former banker Victor Babariko. Veronika Tsepkalo also replaces wife - Valeria, signatures which was rejected.
"Fighting girlfriends" rallied around the country. The demonstration in Minsk, has realized the most massive in the modern history of Belarus.
It seems that the situation in the Republic has changed a lot. Denis Melyantsou, program coordinator "the Foreign policy of Belarus" expert suggestions " dialog ", Minsk recalled that the country " is prohibited (independent) polls "." However, After such large-scale actions of the opposition, it can be argued that the current chart Lukashenko lower than before the previous campaigns, " he said.
anyway, in the landslide victory of Alexander Lukashenko is a bit of doubt, stressed the Belarusian scientist And economist Dmitry Bolkunets. Officially, the opposition will be minimal results. It can bring people to the streets, he warns.
Belarusians agitate one another to photograph the ballot, And After voting to send to the Internet platform alternative calculation." Joined there about a million people. The overwhelming majority of Clear - opponents of Lukashenko. These resources will win Tikhanovski, And the opposing political party will declare that I have received a lot more votes than recognize the CEC. Since the government itself would provoke discontent And will create a conflict, " explains Bolkunets.
But the head did Not remain idle. Lukashenko previously almost did Not go campaigning in cities And enterprises. This time it's different.
Not only Minsk residents came out to the rallies of the opposition, stressed Melyantsou." There were ordinary citizens from small Belarusian cities. Never before has a periphery, always sympathetic to Lukashenko, was Not involved actively in politics. This forced the President to visit factories, meet with workers, to talk About their achievements ", - says the expert.
on the increased interest in the election campaign in all Belarusian cities And points Bolkunets. The country is currently highly politicised, And This is a serious challenge for the government.
As soon as the areas will be closed And will start counting the votes, the opposition will take to the streets. Head immediately warned it will Not give them the opportunity to vandalize." some continue to call people to the square. God forbid, We will build a fire in the center of Minsk And then we will scatter embers throughout the capital. We cannot And will Not tolerate, " warned Lukashenko.
As long as his opponents refrained from direct incitement to riot. But specify that if citizens gather in the square, then join them.
"Svetlana Tikhanovski And other alternative candidates distanced themselves from unauthorized shares, because that could become the basis for their withdrawal from the elections. However, all claim to have plans to protect given for them to vote. This can be interpreted As the readiness of the opposition to the protests ", says Melyantsou. In His vision, dissatisfaction with " what happened in this election campaign, is Not going anywhere And apparently, the steam will spill out in street protests ".
about how important at this time, the position of the West, says Melyantsou. According to His statement, EU member States And the United States have invested much in the restoration of relations with Minsk." for this reason, if the picture in the media forced the dissolution of the demonstrations will Not be so dramatic in Brussels And the capital of the United States will limit myself to critical comments on the authorities. Belarus is now seen in the West through the prism of confrontation with Russia. Strengthening sovereignty of the Republic of There are regarded As part of the strategy of the struggle with Moscow, for this reason hardly against Minsk will introduce a fresh punishment. Even if After a hard forcible dissolution of the rallies punishment will follow, it is likely they will be targeted, " concludes Melyantsou.
The Question remains open, As After the elections will the integration with Russia. Again both countries will have to discuss the outstanding issues. As long as Moscow is vividly highlighted distanced itself from the events in Belarus." Russia has chosen the right tactics, Not interfering in the election process And Not supporting any of the candidates. It is important in the future to maintain this approach. Moscow did Not send observers to elections Is said about the fact that the composure And pragmatism will continue to prevail in the relations with Minsk, " - said Bolkunets.
experts agreed that After the elections, the politicization of the Belarusian society will decline. Over time, will weaken And protest potential. The question is, when will This happen And what lessons to extract for themselves the power And opposing political force.