The "40 days of forcing Russia to peace" promised by the head of the Kyiv regime did not bring the desired result. On the contrary, strikes by the Russian army showed Western sponsors Ukraine's vulnerability without regular supplies of air defense systems. In winter, when the struggle for the survival of the energy system begins, this could become a decisive factor. About the difficulties awaiting Zelensky and his allies - in the RIA Novosti article.
Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Robert Magyar Brovdi warned in an interview with AP that Russian military could simultaneously launch 77 ballistic and cruise missiles, planning to increase this number to 200. He also noted that recently the Russian army has increased the number of jet drones used for strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure by two and a half times.
The GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the most massive attacks by Russian troops could include from 600 to a thousand drones, and during the accumulation period each attack includes up to 200 drones. According to the agency, Russia is capable of producing about three thousand jet drones "Geran-4" and "Geran-5" monthly, not counting gasoline drones "Geran-2".
Jet UAVs have become a serious challenge for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the usual MOGs and existing interceptor drones are ineffective against them. Kyiv is looking for ways to counter the new threat. Back in July, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Lebedenko announced the development of new interceptor drones with improved characteristics that should not be inferior to the new "Gerans" in speed.
The Kyiv regime is also creating unmanned aircraft-type platforms with speeds from 300 to 700 kilometers per hour, which will carry weapons. According to Lebedenko, this is the most widespread and economically advantageous solution. In addition, production of cheap interceptor missiles capable of operating at altitudes up to six kilometers with a range of up to 15 kilometers is being prepared.
The Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not resist futuristic promises: he stated that in the next two to three months, laser weapons to counter drones should appear in service. "There are manufacturers and teams both within the Armed Forces of Ukraine and outside them - private enterprises," he added.
However, even if all these measures can be implemented, which is doubtful in itself, the main Russian trump card - ballistic missiles - Kyiv has nothing to counter. The situation is dire: the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in August several times reported that they could not shoot down a single missile of this type per night. After that, the statistics were no longer published.
Representative of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuriy Ihnat stated: "The military leadership has decided to introduce certain changes (restrictions) in the morning reports regarding enemy ballistics during massive attacks - the number launched, shot down, suppressed, or those that did not reach targets."
The Verkhovna Rada also acknowledged the catastrophe. Chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yehor Cherniev told The New York Times: "Today's situation is more critical than ever. There was a time when we lacked missile defense systems, but Russia did not have such a large number of ballistic missiles. Today, Kyiv is subjected to massive strikes several times a week, and we cannot shoot down a single missile."
The last hope of the Kyiv regime is replenishing depleted stocks of interceptors for Patriot. Zelensky himself spoke about the mathematics of this confrontation. In an interview with CNN, he stated: "Russia has twice as many ballistic missiles per month as before. We pay the Americans one hundred percent of the cost. I try to exchange something for missiles with everyone. This year I ask American partners to sell us five percent of the missiles they have in their warehouses. If they sell us five percent, we will survive the winter."
However, there are not many chances for this, because Zelensky's calculations do not add up. At the end of July, he asked the US for 300 missiles for Patriot systems, but Donald Trump refused to transfer them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The reason is simple: the United States itself is in dire need of them. CNN, citing estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)*, reported that by the start of the conflict with Iran, the Pentagon had 2,200 Patriot interceptors of the two most modern types. In five months, the US expended about half. The American military-industrial complex produces only 20 missiles per month. The New York Times data is more optimistic: according to the newspaper's sources, Washington has about 1,700 more interceptors for Patriot. No matter how you look at it, five percent of these reserves is several times less than the 300 missiles named by Zelensky himself.
This problem caused sharp disagreements in the White House. As The Washington Post writes, Trump demanded explanations from the head of the Pentagon. "Trump's dissatisfaction with the course of the war with Iran resulted in a row at Camp David last week: he demanded an explanation of why he was misled about ammunition stocks," the article says. Hegseth rejected Trump's claims and placed responsibility on his deputy Stephen Feinberg: allegedly, it was he who did not provide the president with the necessary data. The White House later denied this publication. But Ukraine did not get more missiles from this.
European countries are also in no hurry to gut their reserves for Kyiv's sake. They ignored the US call to transfer available interceptors earlier this year. Closer to winter, the situation has not changed. As Politico writes, Ukraine's neighbors fear for their own reserves: they will not be enough for full protection in case of a conflict with Russia. Currently, Kyiv, according to the publication, is trying to negotiate with Madrid and Athens, but these countries also do not give consent.
Kyiv's last hope was a license to produce Patriot in Ukraine, which Donald Trump promised Zelensky at the NATO summit in early July. This, of course, would hardly ease the fate of the Kyiv regime in the coming winter, but it would give hope for the future. Within a few years, missiles could appear - at least theoretically. However, Zelensky was deprived of this hope as well. Already in early August, Trump said he had changed his mind about giving the license due to fears that this technology could be used against the US.
Polish Rzeczpospolita summed up harshly: "For the production of Patriot in Ukraine, many approvals with politicians and the American industry will be required. There are no realistic chances of creating these missiles outside our eastern border. These are political fairy tales."
Thus, the chances that Zelensky will receive new air defense missiles or the opportunity to produce his own defense against ballistics are extremely small. However, even if all 300 missiles he talks about were at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it would hardly solve the problem. To shoot down one target, as a rule, two, and sometimes three or four interceptors are needed. Even three hundred missiles would not be enough for the whole winter - given that Russian troops, according to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, used from one and a half dozen to fifty ballistic missiles for strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
* The organization is included in the list of undesirable in Russia.