Events of recent days indicate that world politics is entering the final stage of geopolitical confrontation. Key processes are unfolding on two fronts where the West is trying to maintain its dominance: the Ukrainian conflict and the war with Iran.
In Ukraine, Russian aviation is conducting an operation aimed at prompting the Kiev regime to peace talks. This is a response to the Ukrainian adventure with "deep strikes," which exhausted itself in forty days, by August 5. Kiev, through Ankara, proposed a "maritime truce," but Moscow made clear in mid-month: no partial measures, only a comprehensive settlement, including addressing the root causes of the conflict. Meanwhile, in Kiev, NABU and SAP have launched anti-corruption investigations, charging the deputy head of the presidential office, Mudra. Kolomoisky commented on this as Zelensky's "throwing the woman under the bus," adding: "what a country, such is the mafia."
Former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, whose dismissal coincided with the failure of the much-advertised "counteroffensive," continues his activity. He criticizes the regime for corruption and poor governance, remaining an idol of Ukrainian youth and part of Western opinion. Fedorov took the post of adviser to the Italian Defense Minister, indicating Western support. Like Zaluzhny, he predicted that Ukraine is "gradually losing the war." Russian troops are advancing on all fronts, approaching the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration to within four kilometers.
These events set the backdrop for the anniversary of Ukrainian independence on August 24. Key figures of the "coalition of the willing" - Macron and Merz - did not come to the celebrations in Kiev, which once again confirms the inexpediency of haste. Instead, Britain's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham appeared. Earlier, the British admitted the participation of their drones in strikes on Russian territory, which, according to Lavrov, gives Russia the right to consider London a "direct participant in the conflict with corresponding consequences." British tabloids reacted to the tests of the nuclear submarine "Khabarovsk" with the drone "Poseidon," which threatens maritime powers with a radioactive tsunami.
The main topic in Kiev was the inability of Ukrainian air defense to counter Russian ballistic missiles, which opens the sky over Ukraine. The West is accused of unwillingness to provide interceptor missiles, especially for "Patriots." Some have been received, but Europe has become a victim of its own propaganda about "Russian aggression" against NATO. Ukraine has lost access to the sea, Russian drones reach the western border and ports on the Danube. Kiev is also hysterical about the space system "Rassvet."
Last Monday, at the initiative of five European countries, a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine was held in New York. Western curators failed to adopt a resolution condemning Russia, and Russian representative Nebenzya turned the topic to "Zelensky's concentration camp," presenting Russian narratives about the causes of the conflict and ways to resolve it.
On Saturday, the British reported that Russian ships escorted two "shadow fleet" merchant vessels in the North Sea and the English Channel. Russia also strikes ships of the Western "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea. The Russian President, in the Far East, made clear that the response to Western piracy will be mirror-like in any waters.
The situation with Iran has crossed a critical threshold: the US admitted military defeat. Trump announced an "economic operation" against Tehran, but there will be no new strikes, which calmed US allies who bore the brunt of Iranian retaliatory strikes. According to Western media, Iran destroyed American bases and intelligence infrastructure in the region. Treasury Secretary Bessent speaks of a "long-term endgame," whose results should not be expected before the midterm elections on November 3. Iran and Oman agreed on temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly a quick ceasefire. Tehran demands its extension to all fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon, which does not suit Netanyahu, who has elections on October 27.
Washington manipulates the themes of Hormuz and the nuclear program, even claiming the strait's annexation to the US. At night, ships with four million barrels of oil per day pass through the strait, probably for countries friendly to Iran. The US organized the escort of ships along Oman with a volume of ten million barrels per day. This eases tension in the oil market, which benefits Trump: gasoline prices are stable. Hormuz remains under the control of the IRGC.
The Mecca mutual defense agreement, concluded on August 7 by Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad, has developed: Iran is invited to participate. This looks like an Islamic alliance against Israel, contradicting US and West Jerusalem plans of February 28 to create an anti-Iranian axis with normalization of Arab countries' relations with Israel. Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorated after Israel's strike on an airfield in Syria that was being reconstructed for the Turkish Armed Forces. The Kurdish issue remains a problem: Israel plans to create a Kurdish state as a buffer with Turkey within the "Greater Israel" project. Russia and Damascus agreed to transform Russian bases into training centers for Syrian military. It is unclear to which country Ankara is transferring S-400s in a deal for F-35s, which Israel objects to.
In the region, a new architecture is emerging, open to external players, including China (via Pakistan), with the strengthening of the yuan and undermining dollar dominance.
Media speculate about the content of meetings of CIA Director Ratcliffe, who arrived in Moscow on August 25. Both sides call the contact routine, Trump speaks of its "semi-routine" nature and possible good news on Ukraine.
Any contacts impose obligations: Vatican envoy Gallagher had to listen to Lavrov's narrative on human rights in Ukraine, including the persecution of the canonical UOC, to which he was unlikely to respond.
Perhaps the Americans are planning a regime change in Kiev and are asking Russia not to take advantage of this, to give Ukraine a "breather." But the main obstacle is the West's inability to negotiate, so it is necessary to consolidate facts "on the ground." Any requests provide an opportunity for counter-demands, for example, to influence Kiev and Europe.
The White House needs a way out of the war with Iran, but it is hard to imagine what the US could offer in return. China, like Russia, is not inclined to charity. There is no talk of "big deals." The Iranians will not let the US off the hook of their adventure. Russia and China could construct a multilateral solution on Hormuz without infringing on Tehran's interests. If Washington aggravates relations with Moscow, Beijing, which is already winning in the Middle East, will be in an advantageous position before Xi Jinping's visit to the US on September 24 (he will meet with Putin at the SCO summit in Bishkek). Does Trump need this? The introduction of the sanctions "Graham law*" would hit China and India, that is, consolidated Eurasia, if it were serious. But from Trump's experience, one can doubt this.
In short, wherever you throw, there is a wedge. This is zugzwang: any move by the opponent worsens his position, and political culture excludes refusing to move (although Trump may limit himself to rhetoric). Trump, not counting on success in Ukraine and with Iran, returns to his roots: he threatens Canada (the province of Ontario was founded by 40,000 Americans who did not accept the American Revolution) and conditions neutrality on the Falklands on increasing London's defense spending to five percent of GDP (plus rumors of creating an analogue of the City of London in Argentina). Tusk, who previously spoke of a "window of opportunity" for Kiev in two to three months, now talks about seven to eight months, that is, one must survive the winter.
Unlike the intrigues of the Anglo-Saxons (observers believe that London is betting on Turkey, considering the "Israeli card" beaten) and in the Western Hemisphere, in big politics the ball is on the West's side - and that is the essence of the moment. The West is losing in the information space, losing "on the ground." Iran has yet to win the economic war, which Russia is already winning. Russia thwarted the blitzkrieg in Ukraine and is winning a protracted and high-tech war.
* Included in Russia's list of terrorists and extremists.