In Europe, another sharp jump in natural gas prices has been recorded: October futures on September 2 reached $903 per thousand cubic meters, equivalent to 75.3 euros per megawatt-hour. According to data from the London ICE exchange, the last time the price exceeded $900 was in December 2022.

The main reasons for this growth were reduced supplies due to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and increased competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which accounts for a significant share of EU imports. According to the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG), as of July 30, 2026, the share of LNG in supplies was 40.8%.

The conflict in the Middle East region and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created serious difficulties for Europe. European and Asian buyers are forced to compete for the same available gas volumes, which further pushes spot prices up.

The situation is aggravated by the extremely low level of filling of underground gas storage (UGS). According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, they are now only 65% full, while the average over the past five years by early September is 82%. This is a serious lag. Ideally, by the heating season it is necessary to reach 90%, but experts doubt that even 80% can be pumped in.

Pavel Maryshev, a member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society, notes: "The situation is not critical yet - provided a 'standard winter'. However, the weather can surprise. The EU has two tools for this: withdraw gas from storage later than usual or purchase additional volumes of expensive LNG on the spot market."

After the events of 2022, the European gas system has generally adapted to low reserves: the capacity of LNG terminals and reverse capabilities between countries have increased. In addition, Norway increased supplies, and in 2025 even overtook the United States, delivering 114.9 billion cubic meters versus 106.6 billion. Gas consumption in Europe has decreased by 17-20%.

Generation based on renewable energy sources has also increased. In the first six months of this year, the total installed capacity of wind power plants increased by 8.8 GW - almost a third of the figure for the same period in 2025, the industry association WindEurope reported. Germany accounted for 39% of new connections.

However, the key risk with low UGS filling - the inability to meet peak demand - remains. The situation could be complicated by abnormal cold and weak winds. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains: on September 4, only four commercial vessels passed through the strait, while in the previous ten days - about ten each. For comparison, pre-war traffic was about 125 vessels per day. Supplies of Qatari LNG remain in question at least until November.

Experts state that there are practically no prerequisites for changing the price trend in Europe. In the LNG spot market, there is a "controlled storm": contract rates are formed online, largely "from the ceiling", tankers change their port of arrival depending on the growth of the regional premium, and speculative traders create additional hype, Maryshev lists.

For European industry, this could be a disaster, especially for energy-intensive sectors - mechanical engineering, chemical, metallurgical, and automotive. The largest EU producers are increasingly moving capacity to the United States, China, and developing countries, which threatens the Old World with a new round of deindustrialization.

As Vladimir Putin noted, Moscow is ready to resume gas supplies to Europe, in particular to Germany, for which it is enough to make a political decision. However, experts note that TurkStream is already operating at the limit of its design capacity.

Meanwhile, the EU is increasing LNG purchases from Russia: in the first half of the year, they grew by 14-17%. Only from Yamal LNG, a record 9.89 million tons were imported - mainly under existing long-term contracts, which the EU firmly intends to abandon from 2027.

Source: RIA Novosti