The global energy resource market is going through a difficult period. A new challenge is the growing complexity of extraction amid disappointing geological exploration results. How this will affect consumers and whose oil reserves will run out first is examined in a RIA Novosti report.
Research shows that easily accessible oil and gas fields are running out. Over the past year, only 19 commercially significant discoveries were made - the lowest figure in the entire history of observations since 1980, according to the newspaper Nikkei Asia. The volume of reserves found is also modest: less than one tenth of the 2013 peak. The bulk of the discovered resources is concentrated in the Middle East.
In addition, relatively inexpensive and easy-to-develop onshore fields are shrinking. Today, most projects, apart from shale, are moving into deepwater and offshore zones. Exploring each such area costs hundreds of millions of dollars or more, and the probability of success is only 20 percent. At the same time, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), it will take about twenty years before production begins.
Under such conditions, companies prefer to invest in expanding already operating areas - this costs less. Thus, over ten years the total volume of investment in oil and gas field development has fallen by almost 40 percent: in 2025 it amounted to about 540 billion dollars. In particular, the British giant Shell cut its geological exploration spending to 1.1 billion dollars - one fifth of the level ten years ago.
From the corporations' point of view, high risks and an extremely long wait for returns make spending on complex exploration unprofitable, explains Ilya Khain, director for well operations at the oil and gas company PETEK and adviser to the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Moreover, since 2020 many oil companies, under pressure from environmental organizations and investors, have been cutting exploration and redirecting capital into renewable energy.
This is indeed a big problem, says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia and the National Energy Security Fund. "A powerful green lobby led to fairly aggressive decarbonization measures in the EU and caused a reduction in investment, but consumption has persisted, and supply has been unable to meet demand. Further pressure is simply dangerous," he notes.
The IEA warns that developing new resources is necessary to maintain the global level of oil and gas production. Otherwise the market risks facing a deficit - demand for energy carriers is only growing.
Of course, it is too early to speak of an immediate threat of oil and gas shortages. The market works not only through the use of new reserves but also by improving the efficiency of already developed areas. However, the decline in the number of new large fields is an important signal for global energy, says Idris Gazdiev, a member of the Digoria expert club.
Existing projects are gradually being depleted, and production is declining. If the rate of discovering new reserves remains low, a shortage of new projects may arise after 2035-2040, and the market's dependence on a limited number of large producers will increase.
The quality of the resource base is objectively deteriorating worldwide, experts agree. However, the situation is not the same everywhere. The most advantageous position is held by countries with large reserves and low production costs - primarily the Persian Gulf states, where a significant part of resources is in large onshore fields, Gazdiev explains. The situation is more difficult for countries focused on "mature" basins or on deepwater and remote projects that are costly to develop. For example, offshore production requires serious investment, long preparation times and carries increased technological risks.
For Russia, the problem of finding new fields is also relevant. "The main potential is linked to Eastern Siberia, the Arctic zone, offshore projects, as well as the development of hard-to-recover reserves. At the same time, the country has a significant resource base, developed oil and gas infrastructure and expertise in developing complex fields," Gazdiev explains.
Nevertheless, the state tries to support exploration and provides tax incentives for hard-to-recover reserves (TRIZ). However, not everyone is allowed into offshore projects. To obtain a license, companies must meet strict criteria: the state's share in the charter capital must be more than 50 percent plus at least five years of experience in developing offshore subsoil areas.
Given all the complexity of preparation, the length of exploration and the rather modest chances of success, the move to active action should have been made "yesterday," Khain emphasizes.
Major global companies are indeed beginning to increase investment and develop new regions. In 2024, the American ExxonMobil discovered a field offshore Guyana. "Just ten years ago, the country did not produce oil at all. Now, thanks to an influx of investment, production volumes are growing actively," Yushkov says. The company expects to increase production by 30 percent by 2030.
British BP last year abandoned its decarbonization course and plans to invest ten billion dollars in exploration and production. Japanese Inpex is conducting exploratory drilling at a new onshore oil and gas field near Australia.
Work on new projects is also under way in Russia. The focus is on Western and Eastern Siberia, as well as the Volga-Urals region. "Companies use modern methods of seismic surveying, horizontal drilling and digital modeling of deposits. However, years usually pass from the discovery of a field to the start of commercial production," Gazdiev emphasizes.
Therefore, decisions on exploration must be made not when a deficit arises, but much earlier. The rate of reserve replacement, production forecasts at existing fields, as well as the investment cycle and the industry's technological readiness, should be taken into account. Energy security is formed not only by the volume of current reserves but also by the ability of the state and companies to constantly replenish the resource base, the experts conclude.