Brussels, despite verbal support for Kyiv, has refused to transfer another tranche. EU officials insist on a report for funds already spent and are pushing Ukraine toward unfavorable reforms. Real money is not reaching Ukrainians. RIA Novosti investigated who the EU is actually helping.
According to Bloomberg, the requested 27 billion euros (30.4 billion dollars) will not be received by Kyiv now. Recall that Zelensky demanded the urgent allocation of funds from a loan earmarked for next year to pay military expenses through the end of 2026.
The European Commission indicated that 37 billion euros are allocated for budget support for the country through the end of the year, and they can be received only as reforms are introduced to combat the shadow economy, increase tax revenues and bring legislation closer to EU law, which are currently stuck in parliament. The request to allocate 220 million euros for agricultural needs was also rejected by the European Commission.
"This is a powerful lever of pressure. The numbers speak for themselves: out of 45 billion euros planned for this year, Ukraine has received only 14.9 billion. The reason is banal - Kyiv did not manage to push through parliament some of the anti-corruption and tax laws that Brussels sought. Among the stalled initiatives are the abolition of exemptions on imported parcels and a tax on the income of digital platforms. Politically, raising the tax burden on people in the midst of war is a step Zelensky frankly does not want to take, hence the logjam," explains Konstantin Pozdnyakov, Doctor of Economics, adviser to the rector of RSSU.
The distribution of the funds received by Ukraine is also raising more and more questions in the EU. Europeans are currently conducting an audit, Le Figaro writes.
Meanwhile, Kyiv faces a substantial financing gap ahead - according to preliminary estimates by the International Monetary Fund, up to 54 billion dollars through 2029. From 30 to 35 billion dollars in 2027, 17 billion in 2028 and two in 2029.
"The figures are frankly frightening and not yet final. Even more telling about the real state of affairs is the calculation by the European donors themselves: about 69 billion euros for 2027 alone. Of that, 40 billion is for the army, and 29 is simply to keep the state functioning," Pozdnyakov clarifies.
Financing such requests is like watering a desert, Le Monde quotes a European diplomat as saying.
Ukraine cannot cope without external support; domestic resources are practically exhausted. Due to the blockade of ports, the country has lost 90 percent of grain exports, and pig iron supplies have been completely halted. The steel industry is practically lost, enterprises are out of action, and production is not being carried out, Reuters reports, citing the Ukrainian federation of metallurgists. On steel alone, the state is losing about 200 million dollars a month, said Yulia Mendel, former press secretary to Vladimir Zelensky. The total damage from the sea blockade is estimated at 1.5 percent of GDP.
The state debt is also at a record level: in August alone it increased by 1.37 billion dollars and by the beginning of September reached 215.55 billion. Over the past five years, the level of indebtedness has grown rapidly: in 2021 it was 48.9 percent of GDP, now it is about 105 percent.
Against this backdrop, any increase in military spending automatically means either the need to increase external financing, or to cut other budget items, or to find a way to raise domestic revenues, says Dmitry Matyushenkov, deputy director of the ANO Center for Legislative Development and a member of the Digoria expert club.
For the European Union, however, the picture looks different. Support for Ukraine is not only direct financing of someone else's budget, but also an instrument of its own industrial and defense policy, experts agree.
Of the agreed 90 billion euros, about 60 billion is allocated by the EU for military procurement and the development of defense potential. Only 30 billion is for budget support. That is, two-thirds of the funds do not settle directly in the Ukrainian budget, but return back to the European economy through orders to its own defense concerns. In essence, support for Kyiv works as a state order for EU industry, loads production lines, accelerates modernization and strengthens Europeans' positions in the global arms market, Pozdnyakov explains.
"This year, the volume of funds for military expenses for Ukraine reached 28.3 billion euros. Moreover, the European Commission itself indicates that most of these purchases will be made from EU defense companies, turning into guaranteed state orders. Among the main contractors are the German Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, as well as the Franco-German KNDS," Matyushenkov recalls. In addition, after weapons are transferred to Kyiv, the European defense industry replenishes and updates its own stockpiles.
Hence a fairly pragmatic model emerges: Ukraine is provided with money, weapons, technology and access to European production chains, but at the same time reforms are demanded that should increase its own financial sustainability, reduce corruption risks and ensure control over the spending of funds. At the same time, dependence on European financing and European defense infrastructure does not disappear.
That is precisely why the demands for reforms are not aimed at caring about Ukraine's future. For Brussels, this is simultaneously a mechanism for protecting its own interests and a way to shape a more stable, manageable partner on the EU's eastern border that is capable of independently financing a significant part of its expenses.