The European Union rejected Vladimir Zelensky's request for early disbursement of part of a 90-billion-euro loan intended for military financing of Ukraine in 2026. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing an informed source.
According to the publication, the decision was made after Kyiv unexpectedly admitted in the summer that a growing budget deficit had created an additional shortfall of 27 billion euros.
Brussels believes that accelerated disbursement of funds would only postpone the problem to next year, not solve it. At the same time, European officials expect Canada, Norway and Japan to help Kyiv. EU countries, according to Bloomberg, will allocate 45 billion euros in early 2027 and simultaneously begin working on other support measures.
In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, at a meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, said that the EU has another 37 billion euros for Kyiv before the end of the year. However, she tied the disbursement of these funds to reforms aimed at fighting corruption and the shadow economy, increasing tax revenues and bringing legislation closer to EU legal norms.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozak said that Ukraine's budget deficit is currently being discussed and a program worth 7.23 billion euros is being prepared. The Board of Directors is to consider it in December. Further steps depend on obtaining sufficient and reliable guarantees.
The IMF expects a deficit of 35 billion euros in 2027, 17 in 2028, and two billion in 2029. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko speaks of 68.77 billion in 2027.
However, there is a high probability that next year it will become much harder for Kyiv to negotiate with Western partners. According to Politico, the EU is seriously preparing for the resignation of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a staunch supporter of the Kyiv regime. At least two countries held meetings at which it was decided that the worst-case scenario, though unlikely, is early parliamentary elections in Germany in which "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) would win.
Meanwhile, Merz's approval rating is steadily heading toward zero. In particular, according to ARD-Deutschlandtrend, only ten percent of Germans are satisfied with his work. According to YouGov estimates, 48 percent believe he will resign before the end of the year. Even in the chancellor's home state of North Rhine-Westphalia, 24 percent are ready to vote for the AfD, and 22 percent for the "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU).
In France, the leader of the parliamentary faction "National Rally" (RN), Marine Le Pen, leads in a hypothetical second round of the upcoming presidential elections, RTL radio reports. In a pairing with "Unsubmissive France" leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, she would receive 69 percent, and with the "Horizons" candidate Edouard Philippe, 57 percent. In the first round, her result is 36 percent. The elections are to be held on April 18.
The AfD and RN do not hide their desire to revise financing for Kyiv, up to its complete winding down. "We will stop payments to Ukraine and any military support, and also put forward significant demands for the return of funds," emphasized AfD leader Alice Weidel.
In Romania, on October 5, parliamentary parties resumed attempts to form a government. Nothing has worked since May because the Social Democrats did not support the liberals' course of harsh austerity. If everything collapses again, the legislature will be dissolved. And in early elections, the "Alliance for the Union of Romanians" (AUR) has the best chances. Party leader George Simion advocates restoring Greater Romania, which partially or fully included the Odesa, Chernivtsi and Zakarpattia regions of modern Ukraine. He is also against financing Kyiv and wants compensation for aid already provided, including the transferred Patriot air defense system.
In 2024, AUR won 18 percent, the second result after the Social Democrats (22 percent). Third was the National Liberal Party (14 percent). A poll by the CURS social service, conducted September 16-22, revealed the following distribution of votes: AUR - 34 percent, Social Democrats - 23, liberals - 16. Accordingly, observers do not rule out that the next Romanian government will be formed by AUR and the SDP.
Despite worsening socio-economic problems, the prevailing view in Europe is still that the West should provide comprehensive assistance to Kyiv, since Russia allegedly poses an existential threat to the EU, notes political scientist Alexander Dudchak.
"Most likely, the IMF will continue to allocate money to Ukraine. True, it is increasingly difficult to justify this, since it is completely obvious: Kyiv is in no position to demonstrate any positive financial dynamics. As for the EU, the Eurocrats will look at what the Zelensky regime has done over the year and, guided by the principle 'I am an artist, that is how I see it,' will call it outstanding democratic reforms," the RIA Novosti interlocutor reasons.
Expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia Denis Denisov holds a similar opinion. But in the longer term, the ruling elites of the EU will have to pay more attention to internal problems caused by current decisions.
"The parties of Weidel, Le Pen, Simion and other opposition forces are confidently gaining popularity. They are still far from being able to form a government on their own, but in the coming years they could become part of it. Then it will become harder to isolate them and neutralize their influence on domestic and foreign policy," the political scientist explains.
Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that at the decisive moment the opposition will simply be bought off. There are already hints of this, since in essence they are calling not for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, but for removing the financial burden of continuing them from themselves.