Psychological problems that begin in adolescence may predict a person's political preferences almost thirty years later. Researchers from the University of Oslo reached this conclusion after studying data from 2,215 residents of Norway. The work was published in the journal Political Psychology.
The scientists followed the participants from the early nineties, when they were about 15 years old, until 2020, when they were approximately 40. At five stages, the people themselves reported the frequency and severity of their symptoms. In the final survey, they also talked about voting, trust in the authorities and other people, interest in politics and their ideological views.
The researchers divided mental problems into two groups. The first is internalizing, that is, directed inward: depression, anxiety, a sense of hopelessness. The second is externalizing, manifesting outwardly: in adolescence these are vandalism, truancy, fights, and in adults, alcohol abuse or aggression.
It turned out that both types of problems are associated with lower turnout in elections and less trust in political institutions and those around them. But political preferences diverged. Those who had pronounced internal problems in their youth were more likely by age forty to lean toward left-wing views and less often voted for center-right parties. Especially often, those whose symptoms had decreased over time voted for the far left.
People with persistently high externalizing problems, on the contrary, demonstrated a right-wing profile: they more often opposed social equality, supported harsh punishments and felt threatened by immigrants. They were twice as likely to vote for right-wing populist parties and half as likely to vote for center-left ones.
The authors suggest that anxious and depressed people may gravitate toward egalitarian platforms that pay attention to social injustice. And those who are prone to confrontation may support populists with exclusionary rhetoric. However, these are only hypotheses.
It is important to emphasize: the study is observational; it shows a statistical association, not a causal one. The psyche and politics may influence each other. In addition, political views were measured only at the end, at age 40, and were not tracked in parallel with symptoms. Norway is a country with strong social protection and a multiparty system, so the results may not transfer to other states.