Major powers and private companies are increasingly planning to build infrastructure on the Moon and extract resources there. Against this backdrop, Florian Rabitz, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, together with Xiao-Shan Yap of Utrecht University, published an article in the journal Global Environmental Politics titled "Don't Fly Me to the Moon: A Moratorium on Lunar Industrialization." In it, the authors examine the risks related to environmental protection, international regulation and who will benefit.
According to the researchers, large-scale industrialization of the Moon could cause irreversible environmental damage, hinder scientific research and jeopardize the cultural significance of the satellite. To reduce these risks, they propose a temporary moratorium on industrial development - a pause that would allow time to develop international rules and hold broad public discussion of whether such activity should begin at all and in what forms.
"Honestly, I think it is necessary, but not necessarily what we are very likely to get," Rabitz says.
He emphasizes that most people do not realize the scale of the lunar projects currently being planned by the United States, China and private space companies, although these plans could have consequences for all of humanity.
Another serious problem is the risk of unequal access to lunar resources. Countries and corporations that build infrastructure first could gain significant advantages and effectively control access to certain areas of the Moon.
"As for the Moon, it is completely clear that whoever does the main infrastructure work (the Americans or the Chinese) will assert their positions, including by defining their own exclusive territories. This should not be the Wild West," Rabitz notes.
Under international space law, no country can claim sovereignty over the Moon. However, the researcher warns that without stronger international governance, lunar development will likely remain the domain of a very small number of influential players.
Although limiting the ambitions of major space powers and corporations will be very difficult, Rabitz believes that more active participation by citizens, civil society, scientists and governments could to some extent influence the direction and pace of lunar industrialization.
The publication emphasizes the need for broader international discussion before large-scale industrial activity begins, so that decisions about the Moon take environmental protection and the interests of humanity into account.