Domino effect hits Europe
The future for Europe`s monetary union looks increasingly bleak as ever more Eurozone nations ask for bailouts to cope with their mounting debts. Greece is nearly bankrupt, and in Ireland the threat of national insolvency is taking its toll on the country`s top politicians.

The future for Europe`s monetary union looks increasingly bleak as ever more Eurozone nations ask for bailouts to cope with their mounting debts. Greece is nearly bankrupt, and in Ireland the threat of national insolvency is taking its toll on the country`s top politicians.
The Taoiseach Brian Cowen is the hardest hit. Ireland`s Greens, one ally of the ruling Fianna Fail party, have switched allegiance and now accuse Cowen of bringing the country to its knees. Cowen has just enough time to get the draft budget for 2011 through parliament before January`s snap election. Fianna Fail is not likely to be among the leaders this time round: its current ratings are at a record-low of 19%.
These days Europe seems largely unconcerned with Ireland`s political health: changes of government in "the Emerald Isle" are seen as routine for the moody Celtic nation.
The EU has pledged 90 billion euro in a bailout to Ireland, with the final details to be agreed in late November. Brussels is fretting about whether the configuration is right and how effective it will be in rescuing the country`s comatose economy from bankruptcy. Some experts argue the amount pledged is too small and that at least 120 billion euro is needed to ensure that the contamination does not spread to other EU countries.
Portugal: In need of intensive therapy
EU politicians and journalists all turn to medical lingo in their attempts to describe what the Eurozone is currently experiencing. Terms like "infection" and "quarantine" are now buzzwords in currency-related reports, and will continue to appear routinely alongside the patients` names -- Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy...
Portugal`s sovereign debt currently stands at 112% of its GDP and its budget deficit equals 9.5% of GDP. Greece`s pre-bailout debt stood at 94.6%, its budget deficit at 9.8%.
At the end of this year, and next April, the country will have to buy back its government bonds and secure fresh loans to reduce the yawning budget deficit. Markets are already setting the loan rate for Portugal at 9%. A rate of over 10% is seen as a financial collapse, so it looks like Lisbon is already on the brink of insolvency. Spain may be next.
To EU leaders, there is no dilemma. Portugal`s economy is too small not to be rescued. Spain`s, by contrast, is too big. As simple as that. Should this fiscal incontinence spread across the Iberian Peninsula, no bailout will help, with the erosion of the single European currency then only a matter of time.
Germany calling the European tune
Germany only benefits from the Eurozone`s current frailty. Chancellor Angela Merkel has already won tighter fiscal discipline inside the EU and penalties for all those who fail to comply, insisting that these new rules are consolidated as a supplement to the Treaty of Lisbon, or the European Union`s reform treaty.
Now Berlin is pushing for more. Thus, according to the British newspaper The Guardian, Germany`s Finance Ministry has, on Merkel`s instructions, drafted a proposal to share costs between debtors and creditors that it hopes to make legally binding.
Under the proposal, if a debtor country finds itself short of cash and turns to the EU stabilization fund for a bailout, holders of that country`s bonds should postpone debt payments and bring the interest rates down. And if a debtor country is on the brink of bankruptcy, creditors should cut buyback interest rates by a third or even by half.
However unpopular this initiative may prove to be, Merkel is quite likely to get her way. Charles Grant, director of the authoritative British think-tank, the Center for European Reform, argues that the Europeans will have no option but to rebuild the EU on Germany`s federative model. The Germanic nations, including the Austrians, the Dutch and the Scandinavians, will be only too glad to see that happen, enthusiastic as they are about Berlin`s ongoing efforts to restore order to the Eurozone.
Other EU nations are displaying distinct resistance to this prospect of German domination. But Grant predicts that France, Europe`s second largest economy, will eventually fall into line. Otherwise, Berlin may just turn its back on the European club, and team up with Russia and China, leaving the EU without its strongest player.